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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (14901)	10/18/2000 3:28:54 PM
From: dougSF30	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Monty, It's not enough to look at a few cherry-picked examples from the past. I realize that formulating a rigorous model from what may be a hard-to-quantify, intuitive, heuristic process is difficult, but it's the only way to determine whether it really works. As for AMD at 94... I assume that was back in May or June? Assuming that it was, I simply don't believe that AMD's chart through that time could have fortold the slowdown in PC demand that occurred in the 3rd (and seems to be continuing in the 4th) quarter. Had that not materialized, I believe both AMD and Intel would be enjoying much higher multiples right now, and in particular, that AMD short would've cost you. I guess that's a specific example of my not believing that past performance can reliably predict future 'fundamental' events, and those latter would seem to have much more impact than little gaps in the price history of an equity. That said, if you'd describe your method roughly (here or in PM), I'd be happy to attempt to work with you to formulate it more rigorously, that we might test it out on some data sets. Doug p.s. The other thing is this: Were AMD at 80 now, you can bet we'd be enjoying the company of Bizarro-Monty (your evil twin), who would be telling us about his TA system that allowed him to buy way-out-of-the-money calls back in March. That is, at all times, you can find a TA system that will 'tell you what you want to hear'. It is suprising that person X won the lottery. It is not surprising that SOMEONE won the lottery.