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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (38469)	10/18/2000 6:07:03 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

ST, How can this guy claim "We are not seeing any slowdown PCs Different companies have different outlooks. Although I am stating the obvious here, it is none to clear to those on WS who lump all of technology together. Last night, Andy Bryant said Intel was on allocation in many areas. Companies like RFMD and PMCS may have more trouble if handset sales slow since their growth is key to their share prices, much more than say an INTC. You cannot paint an entire industry with the same brush. BTW, I would not be surprised to see TXN's comments hammer semis although it would be the second time it was priced in. This is old news from summer yet the market seems to react lately as if it came out of nowhere. BK

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (38469)	10/18/2000 6:27:40 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

ST, Re:That is pure bull as far as I am concerned. Intel warned about this Q in Sept. and they lowered their growth rate in Q4 to half of the norm. RFMD got killed today due to their forward comments on communication chips. And now we have this from CNXT: After the bell, RMBS, SNDK, and BRCM all handily beat estimates and are trading well up in AH trading. RMBS biz.yahoo.com SNDK biz.yahoo.com and BRCM biz.yahoo.com

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (38469)	10/18/2000 6:27:53 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

re: slowdown in chip demand: We have had enough warnings, in enough different companies, to say that demand for chips is in question for 2001. Or, rather, the supply/demand balance is in question. Current cap-ex numbers for 2001 are based on very rosy forecasts for increases in chip demand. Remember, "bookings" are not "sales", until the equipment is delivered. Bookings can, and do, get cancelled, every downturn. If the chip demand forecasts are too optimistic, then by late this year or early 2001, we are going to start hearing semis cut cap-ex budgets. As night follows day, the dreaded phrase "excess chip inventories" is followed by cancelled orders for semi-equipment. This is the question for the rest of this year: what is chip demand going to be next year? Everything else (questions about valuation, TA, liquidity, sentiment, etc.) depends on the answer to that question.