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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (38477)	10/18/2000 6:44:46 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

If I recall correctly, there was a talk in the SEMI industry a few years back to scrap BTB in favor of just bookings (or was it just billings?). As with all change there was resistance to the idea. I guess they scraped it. ST

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (38477)	10/18/2000 7:39:21 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, btb or orders vs stock price? Aside from reasoning this out, one can just look at the charts to see what is the better predictor. Turns out none of the two is good enough to help the investor avoid a 50% loss from the stock peak. We get the data too late. In addition, there are times, like now, where prices turn down without a corresponding drop in btb or orders. This time prices started to decline in April and 4 months later btb is still high and orders are still increasing. [I'm talking about August data]. Granted, such early price decreases have been seen before, but not 50%. Still, it is better to be informed, so I'll continue to make charts. That holy grail has to be out there. :) Gottfried