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To: sammaster who wrote (29643)	10/18/2000 9:18:27 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

bankruptcy doesn't necessarily mean the stock will go to zero. most likely it would go into very low single digits, or to a fractional price like 5/16. a ch.11 re-organization essentially is a milder form of bankruptcy, which allows the firm to keep creditors at bay for some time to give it the breathing space to negotiate and sell assets, etc. a true bankruptcy (winding up) that means zero is the target is a ch. 7. since these things move in stages you'd see a ch 11 first, with the stock tanking to above mentioned fraction, which allows for delivery to the put seller. is AMZN destined for ch.11? the 'analysts' said NO until recently, some saying 'it could be profitable at will'. i really doubt that...imo the financial situation of AMZN is so precarious by now as to really cause concern. while it does have some valuable assets, including its brand name, i fear the business was stretched too far too fast. and for all the wrong reasons: they did it to please WS, not to make a profit (which would in the end also please WS, but again, the shagging 'analysts' insisted that it must become a supermarket on the net for everything. thus the forays into ever stranger market segments). can it still be turned around? i guess it would be possible...under a different management perhaps. in any case, the time of cheap financing from WS has ended. and the co. is in a dilemma now, as it would need to raise prices if it wants to earn the margins necessary to stop its cash burn, or alternatively would need to shut down several business lines, sell warehouses, etc., which in turn would damage confidence initially to an extent that may once again lessen their chance of survival. of course if you ask Bozos about this he'll tell you it ain't so. mind you, i used to be a big fan of AMZN..back in the heady days when their model promised 'no inventory costs...24/7 accessibility...huge growth'. the inventory story was the first to change. the accessibility of course remains, as well as some growth (although not huge anymore as it were). my guess is that a ch.11 is in their future, and that someone else will walk away with the brand, the site, and the customers. Bozos of course will remain rich...he sold enough shares to last this entire thread for a life time.