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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (60915)	10/18/2000 9:56:25 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

My 2c --We are now in a wave 4-which may be complete by Friday/Mon--and after that one more new low for this move on most of the indeces--sox, spx, dj,naz-----dj to bottom out approx 9400-9500 eg----2875 on Comp is a gap to be filled?-----various Fib time dates are all clustering around Oct27-Oct31 area for end of this phase of the Bear----summary---One more shot down across the board------ps MSFT has likely bottomed (going out on a limb here obviously-went long this am at 50 so who knows). maybe same with INTC. Maybe a classic Wave II correcting of a multi year Big Bull run. At the 48.44 low this morning MSFT had retraced approx 62%, would you believe.-textbook elliott if it turns out to be the case

To: HairBall who wrote (60915)	10/18/2000 10:15:47 PM
From: NucTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, any significance to the NAZ appearing to have nudged down into the high of the '90 trading channel? Bounce back out in the next couple days, or destined to fall further in?

To: HairBall who wrote (60915)	10/19/2000 12:41:40 AM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, thanks again for the WOW charts, specifically the COMPX. Is it possible to show an expanded time frame on that chart? Something like a 3 year or 5 year read? I'm interested in seeing how the pattern of increased down volume and index direction correlates to the rising 90 trading channel. Interestingly enough the 1 year VIX chart shown here is registering very similiar levels to those shown during the early april and mid to late may corrections of this year... 1 YEAR VIX stockcharts.com[L,A]DACLYYMY[DD][PA36.38!A35!F][VC60][I] 1 YEAR COMPX stockcharts.com[L,A]DACLYYMY[DD][PB50!B200!D20,2!F][VC60][IUB14!LA12,26,9!LF!LH5,5!LI5,5!LG!LC20] CBOE Market Stats for October 18, 2000 Put/Call Ratio: 1.01 VIX OPENING VALUE: 35.95 VIX HIGH VALUE : 36.74 VIX LOW VALUE : 31.42 VIX CLOSING VALUE: 32.50 * 1998 october low CBOE Equity only P/C ratio = 1.0786 3 YEAR $CPC stockcharts.com[W,A]DALANYMY[DF][PA.50][VC60][I] To All: Notice however the Chaikin Money flows on the COMPX and how they differ between May of this year and now, and also how much more heavily the index seems to be under distribution this time around. I have noticed very little mention on the threads of the fact that the COMPX has experienced 5 DAYS of distribution including today (down days on increased volume from the previous session) in little more than TWO weeks. 1 MONTH COMPX stockcharts.com[L,A]DACLYIMY[DA][PB50!B200!D20,2!F][VC60][IUB14!LA12,26,9!LF!LH5,5!LI5,5!LG!LC20] As you stated earlier, todays lower low shows the possibility that the downtrend is still intact, and the warning signals of blatant distribution leaves me inclined to lean towards the distinct possibility of more downside action. Thanks again for the charts. Regards, John M.