Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Georgeb who wrote (16838)	10/18/2000 10:14:55 PM
From: Joe S Pack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Some hope?.. -Nat biz.yahoo.com Chartered up after strong Q3 earnings SINGAPORE, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing's shares rose 10 cents to S$6.85 in early Singapore trade after the chip foundry's announcement of solid growth in the third quarter ended September. By 0135 GMT, Chartered was up five cents at S$6.80 with more than three million shares changing hands. For the third quarter ended September 30, Chartered reported a net profit of US$71.6 million, up from a net loss of $6.2 million a year ago. The better performance was largely due to strong orders from Lucent Technologies (NYSE:LU - news) and improved customer and product mix. It posted revenue of $305.6 million, up 67 percent from a year ago. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a net profit of $60-66 million with revenues close to $300 million.

To: Georgeb who wrote (16838)	10/21/2000 7:02:23 AM
From: Georgeb	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

From a newsletter published by Babson-United: October 16 "For the third time in the last four quarters, LU has pre-announced an earnings shortfall. The problems are again centered in the legacy ciruit switching business and in optical systems. The company is also increasing bad debt reserves, in anticipation that emerging telecom service providers won't have the cash to pay LU for products already purchased. LU forecast earnings of 17-18 cents per share in its fiscal fourth (September) quarter; vs. expectations of 27 cents. We have reduced our fiscal 2000 estimate to $1.00 per share. Our earnings estimate for next year is $1.15. LU has severe problems, both internal and external. The firm is in such disarray that management apparently was not even aware of the nearly 40% shortfall in earnings until just two weeks before the release date. LU has lost considerable market share to NT and CSCO, and we believe that this market share shift will be difficult to reverse. The lone bright spot is LU's Microelectronics division, which is high quality and very fast growing. The spinoff of this unit (probably worth about $20 a LU share) is slated for next year. We advise LU shareholders to hold the stock (now 23), primarily for the Microelectronics division." With the ME $20-25 per share value. LU should be around $50 by the end of march (combined value of LU and micro), even without any change in LUs dismal outlook. The outlook for LU could change for the better with the transitions into the 40G long haul optical products (currently in field trials), and with the release of Metro optical products. OC-192 (10G) is only one product cycle, and NT can't ride that forever. I am thinking about buying the 2002 25 calls, going for about $5 a share. With the Micro spinoff at the end of March (and a combined price of about $50) that would yield a 400% return on the $5 investment. What could go wrong? Micro could stop performing (they had a 50% increase in earnings this past quarter). LU might decide to not give the investors the 80% that they have said would be given to shareholders. Seems like a great investment for 5 months. Any disagreement?