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Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (792)	10/18/2000 10:35:38 PM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2293

Victor, the B2B's seem to be doing fine. equating the likes of AVNX and GLW to dotcoms is simply inaccurate. Personally, I see GLW as the winner of alll of the plays since they win no matter who is building the boxes, components and networks. tp

To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (792)	10/19/2000 1:20:19 AM
From: LLCoolG	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2293

Victor, You look like a simpleton with your very elementary opinion. It is not a simple case of supply and demand, and you omit several key points from your attempt at coherent logic. First, optical networking is what will drive broadband and the continued development of the information backbone which has driven the productivity gains throughtout all industries the past few years. B2B also helps to this end, and the quality B2B names, such as Ariba, Oracle, I2, and Commerce One have not been slaughtered. Comparing optical networking to Linux and Fuel Cells is idiotic--those segments will never drive the world economy anywhere. PC's won't either, so comparisons to Dell are off, too. Continued buildout and improvement of the internet backbone will, and there is no arguing against that. That is the key to globalization. The only reasonable bear argument ot this end is that telcos are running out of cash and credit to pay for these items. The earnings from companies like Sun, Avanex, Extreme, and Efficient Networks show that the quality companies are still getting their orders, and the second-tier are fading. The strong will continue to grow and prosper. AVNX is clearly strong in that regard for now. Second, insider filings have very little to do with stock performance. For every insider sell or filing you can find, I will find a previous insider sale in a company whose stock subsequently exploded. This claim is a scare technique, period. Insider selling, especially on any new tech issue, is standard fare, and is completely independent to the perceived future of the stock by the insiders, they simply want to diversify. And you cannot blame them for that. Last, there is most likely an ungodly amount of money on the sidelines right now. It may not come in for a while--nobody knows when it will. Everyone I know has some "powder dry", and many brokers I know have war chests of cash from clients waiting for the next run. I know I got stopped out of a lot of things in Mid-September; lessons learned from April, moving stops up during runs. The Fed will not infuse the market with liquidity like they have done the past several years, but there should be plenty of cash around to punch the NAZ back to the 4000-4500 level very easily. You keep crowing bear market, when reality probably dictates that we are in a sideways market, equilibrating from the 5000 bubble last spring caused by the liquidity injection for the Y2K scare. Nobody called the rally in August. Nobody called the burst last Friday. Why don't you be original and just say you don't know what is going to happen, because you don't? If the Naz pops to 4500 before the year's end, you will look like an idiot and miss your opporunity cost to boot. I don't know what is going to happen. It is plain to me that unless Avanex completely melts down, which looks unlikely, the worst it will see in the 80's again. And I am more than willing to wait, because when the market equilibrates from the Spring bubble, and we get back in the 3500-4500 trading range, AVNX will be a lot higher than here. I like my odds. If all you want to post 10 times a day is that we are in a bear market and you think AVNX will be at 55 in a month, when it IPO'd there, you are wasting our time and bandwidth. You have been heard loud and clear. Go for a run, go lift weights. Do something productive with your life. If you cannot do that, at least get original or eloquent, or just shut your piehole for a week or two. G