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Politics : Al Gore vs George Bush: the moderate's perspective -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (3128)	10/18/2000 10:41:54 PM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 10042

Golly........The Street Wants George W. Page: 1, 2 individualinvestor.com By Maria Bartiromo (10/18/00) Whoever wins the White House, Wall Street analysts expect defense and aerospace stocks, already up considerably for the year, to continue their gains. The theory is that either candidate, if elected, will pursue active foreign policies, which will mean continued deployment of U.S. troops in hot spots around the world and accelerated procurement spending at home. Tobacco stocks would also probably benefit. As Goldman Sachs's political analyst Joan Woodward puts it, "It's hard to imagine anyone in the White House being worse for the group than Bill Clinton." At the Democratic convention, Al Gore toned down his anti-tobacco rhetoric and has only proposed that tobacco products be kept away from children. But the man tobacco companies really want is George W. Bush, a politician who could probably be counted on not to pursue the Justice Department suit brought against them. Goldman's tobacco analyst Marc Cohen expects a move of 25% to 50% for tobacco stocks if the Republicans take the White House. His favorites include Loews and Philip Morris, both on Goldman's recommended list. Both Gore and Bush have promised seniors a new drug benefit, but the Democrats' government-financed plan might lead to downward pressure on prices, a sure negative for drug stocks, whereas a Republican win could ignite a rally as fears about the Democrats' plan recede. Similarly, Bush favors market-oriented health-care proposals, such as tax incentives anddirect subsidies for low-income individuals. Gore favors government involvement and has endorsed a patients' bill of rights with a strong right-to-sue provision, which could raise litigation risk for the industry. Managed care and pharmaceutical stocks have traded down in anticipation of government involvement, so a Republican win might boost a sector that is now attractively valued. Wall Street itself is looking for a big inflow of retirement savings from an overhaul of Social Security, no matter who wins. Gore's plan keeps the existing Social Security system in place, but allows workers to augment their retirement income with voluntary contributions to "Social Security Plus" accounts. Under the Bush plan, some portion of workers' Social Security payroll tax would be redirected into private accounts, bringing as much as $80 billion more a year to financial markets, beginning in 2003, according to Goldman's Woodward.