To: MKTBUZZ who wrote (48877 ) 10/19/2000 11:34:23 PM From: Joe Btfsplk Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 769667 Too bad we can't put a figure on the number of people whose lives have been saved throughout history because someone had a gun. There's a pretty good guess for a brief period right here in America:CRIME, DETERRENCE, AND RIGHT-TO-CARRY CONCEALED HANDGUNS John R. Lott, Jr. School of Law University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637 and David B. Mustard Department of Economics University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637 August 15, 1996 JOHN R. LOTT, JR. and DAVID B. MUSTARD Abstract Using cross-sectional time-series data for U.S. counties from 1977 to 1992, we find that allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons deters violent crimes and it appears to produce no increase in accidental deaths. If those states which did not have right-to-carry concealed gun provisions had adopted them in 1992, approximately 1,570 murders; 4,177 rapes; and over 60,000 aggravated assaults would have been avoided yearly. On the other hand, consistent with the notion of criminals responding to incentives, we find criminals substituting into property crimes involving stealth and where the probabilities of contact between the criminal and the victim are minimal. The largest population counties where the deterrence effect on violent crimes is greatest are where the substitution effect into property crimes is highest. Concealed handguns also have their greatest deterrent effect in the highest crime counties. Higher arrest and conviction rates consistently and dramatically reduce the crime rate. Consistent with other recent work (Lott, 1992b), the results imply that increasing the arrest rate, independent of the probability of eventual conviction, imposes a significant penalty on criminals. The estimated annual gain from allowing concealed handguns is at least $6.214 billion.