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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom D who wrote (41095)	10/19/2000 8:10:38 AM
From: bambs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Looks like it's party time! The street is going to use MSFT's numbers to stick it to the shorts. Should be another wild day. Bambs P.S. MSFT revenue increase 7% hmmmm. Oh well....let's not worry about that...buy buy buy. Everything beat up is good again. Thanks Mr. Softy

To: Tom D who wrote (41095)	10/19/2000 9:34:48 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Tom D, There are many posts that answer your question. Here are some facts. JNPR announced that it had increased market share in the high speed router market last quarter. Thanks to work Jorj did last week we have estimated that this market contributes about 6% to CSCO revenues. CSCO surrendered (again this is only last quarter so we don't have any smoothed data) anywhere from 2%-4% market share depending upon which analyst you believe. So, when I do the math CSCO lost .025% ($50M) of their total quarterly revenues to JNPR. I hardly see that a "bleeding". I should point out that as far as I know JNPR is competing against a product from CSCO that is about 2-3 years old. Furthermore most of JNPR's wins I believe are due to the fact that they have OC-192 interfaces. So, if CSCO solves these issues with new product or interfaces I suspect the field will change... Do you think CSCO would not attempt to innovate in this space? Second, let's look at the markets that CSCO has been expanding into. Last CC Chambers mentioned that the optical business is expanding rapidly and at that time CSCO was on a $1B run rate. This new business/market appears to more than make up for the miniscule lost share in the high end router market. There was a recent study that was posted on Lightreading.com (might still be there) that showed CSCO's optical business grew faster as a percentage than any other company in that space. Pretty amazing when you think about it. It's pretty clear that this loss in share is being blown way out of proportion. We won't even go into other markets where CSCO is capturing share like cable, DSL, VoIP, content switching, etc.. The point I'm trying to make is you shouldn't get lost in the media frenzy around CSCO losing market share. Yes, we all know it's unheard of for CSCO to lose share. But given that CSCO practically owned the high end router market it's not surprising that market share would go in a negative direction - it's the nature of competition and economics. Due you own dd and stop reading the hype about CSCO being yesterday's news. If after you've done your own investigation you feel it is....at least you know it first hand.

To: Tom D who wrote (41095)	10/19/2000 11:48:22 AM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 77400

Well, maybe it's just me, but I if I was an employee, I'd feel that the stock probably did get ahead of itself. But the stock price and fundamentals are now divorced, at least in the short term. To be honest with you, I expected the stock price to stagnate. That's what happens when the price gets ahead of a company's fundamentals. However, if I'm an employee, I've got to be looking at their torrid growth that has so far continued unabated for the last 8 quarters. Then I look at Cisco's dominant position in almost every product category. Then I look at their one area of weakness (JNPR) and I should think, well, it's to be expected. Cisco has so many competitors now, that it would be a fairy tale dream for them to win every single battle. In addition, JNPR's revenues that would otherwise have been Cisco's are still such a small piece of the overall pie that Cisco is tackling, that really, it's a nonevent on Cisco's books. The only thing that would really be worrying me at this point is will Cisco perform in the optical market. I'd watch that market like a hawk, because it is the key to their continue growth. If I were an employee, I'd think if they don't succeed in that area and soon, I might start considering the other offers on my table. Just my thoughts.