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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lone Star who wrote (38515)	10/19/2000 9:48:58 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

LS, Congrats on your purchase.....no doubt will prove very profitable over the coming years. BTW, did anyone see the list of tech stocks that MSDW thougght had bottomed? They highlighted those with only the highest relative strength. Of course AMAT did not make the list. At this point, AMAT is to a brokerage house what sticky issues are to the Prez candidates. Neither will go out on a limb for fear of looking like a fool. My guess is that the road to Recovery will take months and not weeks for this one. BK

To: Lone Star who wrote (38515)	10/19/2000 10:23:32 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

WPC2000] 'PCs Will Still Shine;' Japan's Experts Discuss Rosy Digital Future October 19, 2000 (TOKYO) -- Experts from the PC industry pondered the future of PCs and the Internet as well as the digital society for the 21st century at a panel discussion of World PC Expo 2000, an exposition held by Nikkei Business Publications Inc. The Expo is being held at the Tokyo Big Sight hall in Tokyo from Oct. 17 through Oct. 21. The panel discussion was called "Developing the Future with PCs and the Internet." Participants included Eiko Harada, president of Apple Japan Inc.; Katsuichi Tomita, executive manager of NEC Solutions; Keiji Kimura, president of PNC IT Co. of Sony Corp.; Tetsuya Mizoguchi, senior executive director of Toshiba Corp. (and president of Digital Media Network); Kazufu Hotta, managing director of IBM Japan Ltd.; Tadayasu Sugita, managing director for computer business, personal business division of Fujitsu Ltd.; and Shinichi Ata, president of Microsoft Co., Ltd. Shunichi Fujita, editor-in-chief of Nikkei Personal Computing, a magazine published by Nikkei Business Publications, served as moderator. PC Sales Continue Growing The panel discussion centered on the current and future trends in personal computing. Panelists discussed whether PCs will continue to attract users in an environment where PCs will need to compete with information devices like i-mode-compatible cellular phone handsets, Internet-enabled game consoles and personal digital assistants (PDAs). Most panelists said they believe the PC business will remain promising and PC sales will continue to grow. They said PCs still have a potential to do well, because the current penetration level is relatively low. Harada of Apple Japan said "the penetration level of PCs in Japan is around 40 percent of all households, and among individual users, the penetration level is even lower at below 20 percent." Harada added that there's a still long way to go to reach a level where every individual user will possess a personal computer, and double-digit sales growth will continue for some time. Tomita of NEC Solutions said that the growth of PCs will be driven by the penetration of the Internet. "PCs are a tool to use attractive Internet-related services, and along with the penetration of the Internet, PCs will be used more widely," Tomita said. Nothing Can Substitute for PCs Some panelists explained that no other devices are able to assume the role played by PCs. Many cited the demerits of i-mode mobile phones, although they are becoming very popular because of user-friendly features. Kimura of Sony said he expects that i-mode users may start using a PC as well, in addition to some PC users who are expected to buy newer model PCs. "I believe that some i-mode users who have never used a PC will try a PC some day," he said. However, Kimura stressed that PC makers will need to create demand for such first-time PC users by designing newer models. "I-mode mobile phones and PDAs will boost the demand for PCs even further, and the PC-centric trend will continue," said Mizoguchi of Toshiba. Hotta of IBM Japan said that most contents and applications are designed for PCs and thus cannot be used by i-mode terminals. He emphasized his view that PCs will remain a major device for accessing information. Agreeing with Hotta's opinion, Sugita of Fujitsu added, "We will use PCs, cellular phones and PDAs depending on the case." "Information terminals for connecting to the Internet will be expected to have the capability of giving out information in addition to receiving it, and users want them for participating in the Internet community," Ata of Microsoft said. New Features Needed for Future PCs Panelists also discussed the features that will be needed for PCs. Sony's Kimura said that all PCs will be expected to have Internet connections. In envisioning an ideal PC, Tomita of NEC Solutions said PCs will need to be able to offer a combination of capabilities to enjoy music, images and voice communications. They will have to be able to store, process and provide information, he said. Meanwhile, Harada of Apple Japan insisted that PC makers must develop an environment in which users can create content more easily. He said the current environment isn't friendly enough for content creators, and emphasized a need for easier-to-use tools. Other elements cited by panelists included full-time Internet connections, easier-to-use interfaces, wireless capabilities through which users can connect to the Internet from anywhere, and portability. As for content, providing information in the XML format as well as a mechanism for digital publishing are needed, the panelists said. (BizTech News Dept.)

To: Lone Star who wrote (38515)	10/19/2000 12:00:35 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

re: none of this sturm and drang matters to the LTB@H'er Well, that's right. If you are really going to be a LTB&Her, not a Cycle Timer, then any purchase at any point in the cycle will outperform the market, eventually. To qualify as a LTB&Her, you have to be holding through several cycles, at least 5 years. 3 years isn't long enough, if you don't worry about where we are in the cycle. As long as you are willing to hold dead money for 3+ years, (from the 1995 high through late 1998, for instance), you don't need to pay attention to supply/demand in the industry. A LTB&Her can't use margin or options, either. But, if you pay just a little attention to it, and get it approximately right, it can improve investment returns a lot. It isn't necessary to time the bottom perfectly. I remember, from early 1996 through early 1997, and again in summer/fall 1998, agonizing endlessly about when to buy AMAT. Looking at the chart now, it's obvious that any purchase during the entire time I was considering the stock, held till today (even with the 50%+ recent haircut), would be a good investment. But buying out-of-the-money LEAPs in September/October 1998 was better than good. JS@sturming&dranging.com