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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas M. who wrote (4577)	10/19/2000 11:20:52 AM
From: jayhawk969	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10280

I would like to know more about the dosage level. Isomers weight out in varying percentages when the impure compound is produced. For example if r-fluoxetine comprised 33% of the racemic mixture, what were the side effects of r-fluoxetine at the problem level compared to Prozac at 3 times the dosage level?

To: Thomas M. who wrote (4577)	10/20/2000 1:45:26 AM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

>>This calls into question the theory that the drugs in SEPR's pipeline should carry a lower risk premium than the typical biotech. The idea was that SEPR was purifying known drugs, resulting in less or similar side effects, but not more side effects.<< The Lilly news is an extremely serious blow to the SEPR story. First there is the damage to the near-term earnings prospects: R-fluoxetine was one of SEPR's largest ICEs and nearer to market. The Meridia drug may turn out to be huge eventually, but there will be much less bridging data and so development will be longer. Second, R-fluoxetine is now the third "big drug" returned to SEPR, after r-ketoprufen and norastemizole. This board has long been aware that the "good twin/ bad twin" formula is simplistic and probably wrong, and that at most we can hope for market incentives to drive acceptance of some marginally improved ICEs. Particularly the isomer switches seem vulnerable. The metabolites, like Allegra and DDMS (Meridia), offer better prospects. Finally, there is the additional risk factor, that the ICE has a problem that is not associated with the parent drug. This is new, and disturbing. I was out of town today and only received the headlines after calling my broker around 1PM. I sold 15% of my shares immediately, as well as all my options. This will probably prove to have been an over-reaction, especially given the imminent Clarinex news, (which has been supporting the price recently and no doubt helped temper today's selling). But with Son of PRozac gone from the near-term earnings picture, as well as some doubts about other prospects, I don't mind. SEPR has benefited from a biotech valuation (the new dot.coms--$15 Billion for MLNM??) and when it is valued on prospective earnings even the current price might seem rich.