As Expected:No sign of slowdown at Semicon Southwest, 300-mm
builds momentum
By J. Robert Lineback
Semiconductor Business News
(10/18/00, 09:00:34 AM EDT)
AUSTIN, Tex. -- Strong worldwide demand for chip-production systems is showing no signs of
cooling off, and plans for 300-mm wafer fabs now account for more than 10% of worldwide tool
orders, according to a panel discussion of industry executives led by a moderator from
Advanced
Micro Devices Inc.
During the panel session with the press here at the Semicon Southwest trade show,
executives
from FSI International, Semitool, DuPont Photomasks, Extraction Systems, and NetMercury
said
concerns about an early downturn in the chip business were overblown by industry analysts
and the
press. The executives along with panel moderator C. Richard Deininger, AMD's director of
strategic
equipment, technology and planning, expressed more concern about the ability to get skilled
employees to keep up with the booming demand for products.
"We are not seeing any slowdown PCs, and we are not seeing any slowdown in chip demand,"
said
AMD's Deininger. "And we not seeing any slowdown in the cellular phone area for flash
memories,
microprocessors and other communications chips. It is unbelievable that people in the rest of
the
industry would be saying in the press that they are seeing a slowdown or we've reached the
peak [of
market growth]. We just don't see that ladies and gentlemen right now."
Executives on the panel discussion Tuesday cited a number of factors for causing some of the
concern about too much capacity in the chip industry, including uncertainty about the
presidential
election in the United States, oil prices, and general economic growth conditions. But the
managers
said there was no reason to believe that worldwide chip demand would cool in the foreseeable
future
from the strong growth of the past year.
"Every customer I've spoken to is running flat out, and they are trying to squeeze as much
capacity
as they can out of their existing infrastructure," said Don Mitchell, president and CEO of FSI
International Inc., a supplier of fab tools based in Chaska, Minn. The chief executive said a
recent
trip to Asia and Europe indicated that a number of semiconductor companies had announced
expansion plans internally to employees, but those facilities had "not yet hit the press."
Mitchell did express concern about the ability to maintain the current strong growth rates for
new
orders, which is not sustainable over a long period. "You cannot keep up at this pace, but I still
see
this cycle as having a lot of legs on it," he added.
One surprise in the current upcycle for capital expenditures has been stronger-than-expected
300-mm tool demand. Industry analysts had generally predicted that about 10% of the wafer
fab
systems would be for the larger diameter substrates in 2000, but at FSI 300-mm (12-inch) tool
orders are already running in the 10-to-15% range, Mitchell estimated.
"There is no question that it [300-mm] is really providing momentum," he said during the panel
discussion on Tuesday afternoon. "The majority [of tool orders] is still 200-mm systems, and
the
forecast now is that by 2005 it will be 50%. But there are 14 companies building 300-mm fabs
around the world right now. "
AMD is one of those chip companies preparing to jump into the 300-mm fab movement. The
Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company has two 300-mm fab projects on the boards--one in Japan
with
flash memory partner Fujitsu Ltd., and the other set for logic ICs at another location still be
determined, said Deininger.
"The logic factory is expected to be on stream sometime between the end of 2003 and 2004,"
he
said. While those plans have been made public, "there is still a long way to go between having
a
plan to go somewhere and having a commitment to break ground," Deininger added. "But
based on
the [chip] demand we are seeing right now, we have the need for that kind of factory."
Deininger said AMD is planning next year to install new systems in its Sunnyvale Submicron
Development Center for development of processes in those two 300-mm fabs. The company
is
working with Motorola Inc.--its partner in advanced copper processes--on the early technology
for the
300-mm logic fab, but a formal joint-venture in a production facility has not been announced by
either
company, which are widely rumored to be considering a shared plant.
Recently, Motorola executives indicated that they were still unsure if 300-mm tool sets were
fully
ready for volume production, and that issue was playing a factor in the timing of the company's
investment decisions (see company strategy feature). But AMD's Deininger said he was
unaware of
any major problems and believed that 300-mm systems were just about ready for volume
production.
"Lithography tools still have a way to go--no question about it," he said responding to questions
about the tool sets. "Some of the deposition tools have a way to go too. But there are working
tools.
Etch is in its second or third generation [for larger 12-inch diameter substrates]." He also noted
that
new technology nodes--such as 0.13- and 0.10-micron--will require new lithography systems
and
processes, which must be brought up on 300-mm wafers in the next couple of years.
"I see no 'show stoppers' but that doesn't mean everything is perfect," he said. "Can we turn on
full
production today? I don't think so, but I don't think we are far from it." |
