From November till April are good months to trade.
From November US election till Q4
IMO stock market is due a strong or hard rally from November till January
but if Q4 numbers repeat this Q3 I see troubles for 2001
IMO if MSFT and SUNW and the market right now were doing new highs MSFT today was down 20%. The next rally will be hard to play last year was very nice to all lets cross our fingers and take care about our stomach! I still think
to put more money to work at INTC,MSFT and GE may be also
HHH and BBH
Look the numbers below
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The May-October puny $11,574 gain is overshadowed by the November-
April $363,353 gain. Just two November-April losses were double-digit
and were due to exogenous factors: our April 1970 Cambodian invasion
and the fall 1973 OPEC oil embargo.
When I discovered this strategy in 1986, November-April outperformed
May-October by 25 to 1, or $87,201 to $3,429. Results got even better
these past 14 years $276,152 to $8,145 (or 34 to 1).
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SIX-MONTH SWITCHING STRATEGY
S&P % S&P %
Change Investing Change Investing
May 1-Oct 31 $10,000 Nov 1-Apr 30 $10,000
1950 8.1% $10,810 14.8% $11,480
1951 2.3 11,059 1.7 11,675
1952 5.1 11,623 0.4 11,722
1953 - 0.3 11,588 15.2 13,504
1954 12.1 12,990 19.8 16,178
1955 11.5 14,484 14.3 18,491
1956 - 5.8 13,644 0.4 18,565
1957 -10.2 12,252 5.8 19,642
1958 18.2 14,482 12.2 22,038
1959 - 0.1 14,468 - 5.5 20,826
1960 - 1.8 14,208 22.3 25,470
1961 5.1 14,933 - 4.9 24,222
1962 -13.4 12,932 23.5 29,914
1963 6.0 13,708 7.4 32,128
1964 6.8 14,640 5.0 33,734
1965 3.7 15,182 - 1.5 33,228
1966 -11.9 13,375 17.2 38,943
1967 - 0.8 13,268 4.5 40,695
1968 6.1 14,077 0.3 40,817
1969 - 6.3 13,190 -16.1 34,245
1970 2.1 13,467 24.9 42,772
1971 - 9.4 12,201 14.3 48,888
1972 3.6 12,640 - 4.1 46,884
1973 1.2 12,792 -16.6 39,101
1974 -18.2 10,464 18.1 46,178
1975 2.0 10,673 14.2 52,735
1976 1.2 10,801 - 4.3 50,467
1977 - 6.2 10,131 4.9 52,940
1978 - 3.8 9,746 9.2 57,810
1979 0.1 9,756 4.4 60,354
1980 19.9 11,697 4.2 62,889
1981 - 8.3 10,726 - 4.5 60,059
1982 14.8 12,313 23.0 73,873
1983 - 0.5 12,251 - 2.1 72,322
1984 3.8 12,717 8.3 78,325
1985 5.6 13,429 24.1 97,201
1986 3.6 13,912 18.2 114,892
1987 -12.7 12,145 3.8 119,258
1988 6.8 12,971 11.0 132,376
1989 9.9 14,255 - 2.8 128,669
1990 - 8.1 13,100 23.5 158,906
1991 4.6 13,703 5.7 167,964
1992 0.9 13,826 5.1 176,530
1993 6.3 14,697 - 3.6 170,175
1994 4.7 15,388 9.0 185,491
1995 13.0 17,388 12.5 208,677
1996 7.8 18,744 13.6 237,057
1997 14.1 21,387 21.6 288,261
1998 - 1.2 21,130 21.5 350,237
1999 2.1 21,574 6.6 373,353
50-Year Gain $11,574 $363,353 |
