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To: Terry Maloney who wrote (30015)	10/20/2000 12:00:59 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

i think the mother of all blow-offs has been seen already...i know of no market index in history that has added almost 90% to its value in the FINAL SIX MONTHS of its bull run (which lasted btw. since its inception in the 70's, i.e. 25 years) like the NAZ has done between Oct. 99 and March this year. the Nikkei bubble's final run was a harmless little fling to the upside by comparison. the only fly in the ointment was that the other major indices didn't quite join in the blow-off with the same enthusiasm. but upon reflection, it becomes clear that this was simply due to natural limitations - in spite of the fact that the Fed in its misplaced y2k panic threw never before seen amounts of liquidity into the system (i.e. the growth rate of the monetary aggregates bubble entered into a blow-off too), the ratio of the total money stock to the total market cap fell nevertheless to a new all time low, as the mania expanded market caps even faster. as trading volume expanded to 3,6 times of the value of all goods and services produced in the US it obviously became impossible to supply liquidity at a rate parabolic enough to continue to push the envelope even further. the Wishire 5k, as a proxy for the entire market actually produced a classical 3peaks and a domed house formation, that looks in every detail like its predecessor at the peak in 1929. at the same time the NAZ did a sort of Nikkei on steroids. at the peak, all the ingredients suggesting a secular peak were in evidence. in short, if this thing were to go and move to new highs right from here, i'd have to eat my hat. of course it's not impossible - impossible is a term that this market has eradicated...but the odds favor a turn of a secular nature...with all that entails. whether this belief is correct or not is something we have ample time to find out...but my impression is that the credit bubble in particular has just run into a brick wall, and without the credit bubble, no more asset bubble. now Al will go and show me and do record air drops every day for the remainder of the year...