Evans-Novak Electoral College Analysis: Bush 308 - Weird Al 230
cnn.com
Inside Politics
Presidential Race Turns Into Battle Over Bucks; America's Poor
Feeling Left Out of Prosperity Talk on Campaign Trail
Aired October 19, 2000 - 5:00 p.m. ET
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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
WOODRUFF: Still ahead on INSIDE POLITICS: Bob Novak's latest electoral
outlook.
Plus: taking sides in the debate over school vouchers in a key
battleground state. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
SHAW: George W. Bush has pulled further ahead of Al Gore in a new
electoral college outlook by the "Evans-Novak Report." The new survey
shows Bush with 308 electoral votes to 230 for Gore. Two weeks ago, Bush
led 278 to 260. It takes 270 electoral votes to be elected. The
"Evans-Novak" survey gives Bush 23 states, including much of the South
and the Plains states. It says another 11 states are leaning toward
Bush. This survey gives Gore nine states, including New York, as well as
the District of Columbia. It puts California among seven states leaning
toward Gore.
Joining us now: Bob Novak.
Where has Bush made the most gains?
ROBERT NOVAK, "CHICAGO SUN TIMES": He has made the most gains in
critically important states: Florida, Michigan, Missouri, and also Ohio.
We have Ohio now out of the leading category into the probable category.
He has also made gains in Pennsylvania, which we had before probable
Gore, Now, it's leaning gore.
So all these critically important battleground states, in the last two
weeks, we find Governor Bush making -- slipping -- moving farther ahead,
not dramatically, but substantially.
SHAW: Looking at the big four -- some you alluded to: Michigan,
Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio -- who has the edge in each of these
states right now?
NOVAK: In Michigan and in Florida, we give a small edge, but a growing
edge to Bush, to -- in Pennsylvania, the big Gore lead is gone. It's no
longer as far ahead as it was. And what was the other one? Ohio, we now
have Bush moving into a much bigger lead than he had before. One of the
most interesting states, though, Bernie, is California, where all these
survey -- this is our seventh survey we have done in this cycle.
Almost we have always -- almost always said -- at least for the last
several of them, we have had Gore way ahead, probable in California. Now
that lead by Bush is single digits. There's a number of different polls.
And we've talked to a lot of people out there, including Democrats. And
we -- I would say the lead now is somewhere between five and eight
points for Bush -- I mean for Gore. I'm sorry.
Obviously, it's still a strong state for Gore -- not as strong as it
was. And if Bush were ever to overcome Gore in that state, it's all
over.
SHAW: But would you say categorically yes or no that California is in
play?
NOVAK: Absolutely in play. There is just no question about it,
particularly with the Bush people spending $8 million on television. I
just checked with the Gore headquarters in Nashville, whether they were
going to try to counter that. And they told me they had no plans to
counter the spending there so far.
SHAW: Before you leave us, which states are complete toss-ups?
NOVAK: Complete toss-ups right now, I would say as close as you can come
is Michigan and Missouri and Florida, but we give a lead -- we don't use
toss-ups in our calculation.
SHAW: OK.
NOVAK: We give the lead in all of those states to Bush.
In summary, Bernie, I would say that, since the last time I was here,
there was substantial Bush progress. I think that the Gore campaign has
to really stop this now or it's going to get out of hand. This is still
a close election, but it may not be close if this trend for Bush
continues.
SHAW: Bob Novak, good to have you back from the debates -- Judy.
WOODRUFF: All right; and 19 days before the election our daily tracking
poll -- national poll -- also shows gains for George W. Bush. Bush leads
Gore by 10 points in the CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup survey of likely voters
nationwide. But only about one-third of the interviews were conducted
after Tuesday's presidential debate. So it is too early to tell whether
the governor's current strength is based on his final debate performance
or a reflection of the momentum he had beforehand.
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realclearpolitics.com
Real Clear Politics
October 16, 2000
RCP Electoral College Analysis: Bush 356 Gore 182
Why Bush Is Ahead 356-182 in the Electoral College - 10/17
Al Gore is in BIG, BIG trouble. Tuesday's debate is absolutely critical
for the Vice President. He has to WIN the
debate, and he probably has to force Bush into making a significant
mistake. A Gore win in St. Louis, without a
serious Bush gaffe, will not be enough to change the current dynamic of
the race. Bush, on the other hand, just
has to appear presidential, competent and not arrogant.
While Gore has only lost 10 electoral votes since our analysis last
week, his chances of winning the presidency
have seriously diminished. Gore's major problem is that he currently has
only 182 solid electoral votes, 88
short of victory. Where is he going to find those 88 votes?
If Gore can make a comeback in the polls, he can win Iowa, Delaware,
West Virginia and Pennsylvania for 38
electoral votes. Gore's real problem is gathering another 50 electoral
votes given dwindling money and time.
The Gore campaign continues to foolishly pursue their Florida strategy,
wasting valuable money and resources
on a state where the macro fundamentals favor Bush. Gore would be wiser
to focus laser-like on more friendly
terrain in Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, and Arkansas in the
hope of scratching out a 273 - 265
victory.
If Gore can battle back in the polls and make a concerted effort in four
to six states, he could squeak out a
victory. The debate tomorrow night is going to be critical to Gore's
chances of making this happen. If Bush can
maintain and build on his recent momentum, he would be in position to
pick off Illinois, California, Maine,
and Minnesota for an impressive 446-92 electoral win. And a continuation
of the status quo would lead to a
Bush victory 356-182, plus or minus 20 electoral votes.
An explanation on each battleground state can be found on the Critical
Battleground State page.
realclearpolitics.com
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