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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Fulop who wrote (9688)	10/20/2000 9:00:57 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12623

Boomer day for CIEN. Boomer week. Wow. Question for longs: At what CIEN price, say now through next 12 months, would you be concerned from a valuation standpoint about your investment? Or do you just hold until there's a stumble? CIEN certainly seems to be doing everything right, but in the long run those seeing the emperors of optical transport as a bit less fully clothed probably have a point. Like everything in life, it's all timing, and right now this baby looks way too hot to short. What is needed is for some of the newer long-haul networks to scale back their (so-far) ambitious expansion plans. Part of what will probably happen is that all the wonderful new services speculated to be delivered straight to your living room or desktop won't materialize in the ambitious time frames valuations suggest, and the marginal carriers will be redoing their revenue models, and cutting capex, and then the whole thing begins to slow. Watching the chart, but for my money, there are better shorting opportunities than CIEN. [B2B software might be one where we see a slow-down earlier than in the DWDM world.] But the latter, too, shall come to pass. Just a matter of time...