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Biotech / Medical : CLTR COULTER PHARMACEUTICAL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RCMac who wrote (625)	10/20/2000 11:46:42 PM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 666

<<I’ve been lightening up, although I’ll keep a few shares, since it seems likely that the BLA will be accepted -- CLTR and SBH surely dotted the I’s and crossed the T’s this time -- and that Bexxar will both be approved and will sell far better than Zevalin. >> RC, so why lighten up at this point. If CLTR's BLA filing is rejected it will be one of the strangest things I have ever seen. After 14 months of reformating it had better be accepted and I think it will. What do we have, 20 days left. As soon as it is accepted you immediately close most of the arbitrage gap between the two companies and both stock go up 4-5 points on top of that. I would not sell now. That does not mean I like the deal. While in general I like consolidation I am frustrated by this one. I believe in Bex and now I have a 50% dilution from a company I had no intention of owning. The best way to make big bucks is when the conventional wisdom is wrong and you bet big with your conviction. The conventional wisdom is that Bex is damaged goods, may not get approved and at best is a third line treatment after Rit and Zev. That is just not consistent with the data. CLTR will follow up at ASH this year with more Fludarabine combo data (which was extraordinary) and will report on Bex in patients that have failed Rit. I am betting the results are going to be very good. The most bullish indication on how big Bex can be is to look at Rit. When the drug was approved analysts were talking about a $400m market in 5 years. Well Rit has blown through these numbers because it is a good drug, easily administered and has no competition. However, Rit is doing much of the missionary work here and it is clear that the market is huge. I believe Bex will easily garner $300m in sales in 3 years and possibly $500m thereafter. IDEC has a 10b plus valuation and they share Rit with DNA. The upside for CLTR was huge and god knows we CLTR holders deserve it after what we have been through. So now I have to figure our Corixa. What I have learned so far is that they have a CEO who if he played poker with Bingham would own his home and have rights to sleep with his wife. This guy is savey. I just don't like being at the other end. The melanoma vaccine looks interesting and everything else is early. However, they guy seems like a winner and that is worth alot. V1