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To: AllansAlias who wrote (30239)	10/20/2000 7:09:18 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 436258

LOL.. ok.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (30239)	10/20/2000 11:58:17 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Or maybe Luc looks at things the way I do. I've sometimes disagreed with you, even though I use log charts, because I draw channels that parallel the majority of the price movement. If you look at GE, there is a very clear climb rate on the stock, and I draw channels parallel to that climb. I fit it to as many of the lows and highs as possible, but when I get to something like the 1998 low, I discard it. I figure a line that was hit several times over five years has more force than the line that was only hit twice, on two lows of different magnitude. In my way of thinking, the channels represent the mean trend plus/minus the "normal" price noise. Kind of mean plus two sigma or something, like a Bollinger band only different. Moments like the 1998 selloff were clearly more of a three-sigma event, so I don't include them in the line. I'm interested in knowing when the stock has fallen off it's trend by a couple of sigma; I want to know when an event like 1998 is underway. Drawing connections between an extreme low such as that and a more moderate low doesn't make as much sense to me. Of course, if everybody is watching that line, than that's the line to watch! Self-fulfilling prophecy... BC