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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: foundation who wrote (3870)	10/20/2000 9:55:14 PM
From: FedWatcher	Respond to of 196784

<Verizon cannot afford to lag too far behind....> I agree, Ben. Companies do some major screw-ups, witness AT&T or Xerox. But overall, I believe that corporations’ behaviour is governed mostly by their self-preservation instinct. Verizon does not have much of a choice. They will need HDR, they will need 1x. Because what are their other choices? GPRS and then WCDMA? GPRS at this moment looks like a bad joke, WCDMA needs very expensive spectrum. Verizon for the sake of its own preservation will have to go with CDMA2000, no question about it. The question is when. Last quarter Verizon added around 800 000 new customers. Let's assume that they will grow their customer base by 30% next year ( that what they did last year). In other words, they will add 4 mil new subscribers. So, to sell 1 mil of 2G phones during the next year Nokia would have to grab 25% of market share from the existing Verizon suppliers. In one year Nokia would have to go from almost 0% of market share to 25% on a product that will be obsolete at the time when it gets to the market. Is this doable? My gut feeling is that it is very, very tough. Of course, I could be wrong in my thinking, but I really think that we are not being told the whole story about this deal between Nokia and Verizon. Something does not add up here. I say, let's stay tuned. By they way, where are these phones? Has Nokia announced anything about them? Has anybody seen them? These phones better be in some beta testing stage right now or they will not be able to start delivering them in the first half of the next year, and then it really will be late... FW