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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (33818)	10/21/2000 11:13:43 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

OCT 21 INDEX UPDATE ---------------------- Short-term technical readings: DOW - overbought region SPX - CLASS 2 SELL, INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 SELL OEX - CLASS 2 SELL, INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 SELL NAZ - CLASS 2 SELL, INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 SELL NDX - CLASS 2 SELL, INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 SELL VIX - 26.85, OVERSOLD(inverse to market) CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO - .50 5 DAY TRIN - 4.46 Intraday, I did get borderline CLASS 1 SELL signals on the SPX/OEX/NAZ/NDX, but since they closed off their intraday highs they closed with CLASS 2 SELL signals. As I have mentioned in the past it is more reliable to get CLASS 1 SELL signals on a closing basis not intraday. Since those indices did close off their lows, that could be a hint that a short-term reversal started. However they could still head up to form a CLASS 1 SELL which could be as early as MONDAY with the window until TUE's highs. Through out the whole day the SOX lagged the NAZ/NDX and closed slightly negative, forming a DOJI. DOJI's implies indecision and are common at reversal points. Interesting to note that the PUT:CALL RATIO has already dropped to .50 which is already in short-term bearish territory. The VIX already dropped 10 points. The strong fear levels of a few days ago have already declined significantly, and already approaching complacency levels. Its not yet at complacent levels, but appears to be heading their quite quickly. I have not done any analysis to see how long it took the fear levels to drop after previous important bottoms, but Im getting the impression that this change in sentiment is a bit quick. On a subjective basis, one could argue that this rapid change in sentiment could be a hint that the recent high levels of fear could get higher. CNBC mentioned today that the VIX got to extreme levels this week. On a relative basis that is correct. However, please keep in mind that the VIX got as high as 170 in 1987 and around 60 in 1998 and around 40 earlier this year. So from a perspective of absolute numbers, the VIX could get higher. Not saying for sure that it will, just that I wont ignore the possibility that it could. Some are expecting that this rally off of an OCT BOTTOM will be similar to 1998, which produced significant NEW HIGHS in price. One large difference between OCT 1998 and OCT 2000 is the level of NEW LOWs. In SEPT/OCT 1998 the NEW LOWs got to around 1100(NYSE) & 1500(NAZ). The NEW LOWs this week only got to about 300 on the NYSE and around 500 on the NAZ. So its fair to say that this selloff was not as devestating as the one in 1998. Im not saying that it will definitely get that low, just that there still is a possibility of the NEW LOWs getting worse than this week. And if it does get worse it could get alot worse since this weeks NEW LOWS is still far away from the NEW LOW levels of 1998. So for the mid-term(30 days) I feel that the NAZ/NDX did form a mid-term bottom, but we could still see a retest of the recent LOWER LOWs in the DOW and SPX. In light of the recent bullish developments in the NAZ/NDX I am not expecting the forthcoming short-term selloff in the NAZ/NDX to be that strong, and should be a TRADING BUY opportunity. However if the DOW and SPX does a retest of the NEW LOWER LOWS, that could force the NAZ/NDX to do another retest - I wont ignore that possibility for the mid-term(30 days).

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (33818)	10/21/2000 6:44:20 PM
From: B.REVERE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Tom, Did the brokerage houses use the futures to manipulate the indices during your back testing as they do now? Anyone looking at the spoos trade over the last few years realizes that they are being used by the current administration and w/s to perpetuate the false perception portrayed by the bought and paid for media hacks that this economy is really in good shape. We have a public who is essentailly illiterate wrt to financial data and how to interpret it. The current fed governors will go down in the annals of history as the most corrupt liars ever in bringing the world's greatest economy to its knees. If that clown, Greenspan, would have let the chips fall on LTCM, the market would have appropriately gotten back to traditional valuations. Instead, we have this self proclaimed world savior going around like some kind of god who thinks he can change the laws of supply and demand. Why do you think this guy makes almost unintellible comments about the state of the economy? Do you really think he wants the public to know what the hell is really going on? The bond market went up last Thursday and Friday during this great reversal. What the hell was that? That was the real market market telling us that recessionville is coming and anyone with half a brain better get to cash and quick. **********BWTFDIK***********