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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8859)	10/21/2000 5:39:14 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Zeev, 26% of MTSN's orders were 300mm for the Q just past. I believe that $25M of their orders were related to a CVD order from a top 10 chip maker whose building a new fab in Dresden, name unknown, but I'd guess the ticker's IFX. I think we're approaching the end of major investments in new 200mm fabs but will continue to fill out 200mm shells should there be any room to do so. It will take more than the normal 5 or 6 months to get yields up to snuff in the 300mm fabs. I think this will extend the build cycle as the mathematical extrapolation of capacity from 200mm to 300mm just isn't going to happen any time soon. Thus rather than extremes of mania followed by extremes in depth of despair, I think we may see a more prolonged upcycle for orders and perhaps for stock prices as well. The herd may lack foresight at times, but its hindsight usually takes care of those anomalies. ... and I think we've got one now. FWIW, Ian.