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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (8961)	10/21/2000 2:41:49 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Hi Mike, Do you really believe in projections that go out 10 years? I certainly do not. On the contrary, I recall the Pain-Weaver analysis last December that concluded that QCOM would be a $1,000 stock in 10 years. This pipe dream immediately boosted the stock to $200, from where it's collapsed by 60%. I tend to regard Pioneer Consulting as being staight-shooters, on the relative scale of things. But these figures seem highly inflated to me. If it is true that the cost of fixed wireless gear has a Moore's Law equivalent of doubling capacity every 12 months, as most observers believe, then I'd have to think that the revenue figures that Pioneer gives can be adjusted in one of two ways, either inflation comes into play and their raw un-adjusted figures may well be correct. Or maybe we need to cut their projections in half or a third, in order to capture the savings that will no doubt be wrung out of the equipment side of the business. Look at this another way. Who was predicting the today's size of the Internet industry in 1990? No one. What we were predicting then was the continuing rapid decline of the American manufacturing base with an anemic service sector as the only meager replacement. We were predicting lots of pain in the energy sector*. Were we guilty of seeing the future as an extension of the present? Absolutely. Seems that Pioneer is equally as guilty of this actuarial blindness today. Nice that it is more of a rosy scenario. But I'm convinced it is equally unrealistic. JMVHO, Ray *Inflation-adjusted, energy costs are much lower today than at the height of the Kuwait crisis.