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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pz who wrote (5514)	10/21/2000 2:24:11 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11568

Z Portfolio Closed Positions Week Ending 10/20/00 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Bill This week As of last week Total Number of trades 0 3 3 Winners 0 0% 2 67% 2 67% Losers 0 0% 1 33% 1 33% Unch 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Average cost 0 23083 23083 G/L closed positions 0 5250 5250 Average profit $ 0 1750 1750 Average profit % 0.0% 7.6% 7.6% Average holding period 0.0 days 32.3 days 32.3 days G/L open positions -10125 -13500 Chg in open positions 3375 Total G/L Year to Date -4875 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Charlie This week As of last week Total Number of trades 0 1 1 Winners 0 0% 1 100% 1 100% Losers 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Unch 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Average cost 0 22163 22163 G/L closed positions 0 525 525 Average profit $ 0 525 525 Average profit % 0.0% 2.4% 2.4% Average holding period 0.0 days 9.0 days 9.0 days G/L open positions 0 0 Chg in open positions 0 Total G/L Year to Date 525 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Chartseer Stock Date # Cost Cost $ Date Sales Sales G/L $ G/L % Days Bought Sold Price Price $ Held SAPE 10/5 500 34.750 17375 10/16 35.250 17625 250 1% 11 SBC 9/8 500 43.750 21875 10/16 50.875 25438 3563 16% 38 This week As of last week Total Number of trades 2 2 4 Winners 2 0% 2 100% 4 100% Losers 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Unch 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Average cost 19625 26606 23116 G/L closed positions 3813 3125 6938 Average profit $ 1906 1563 1734 Average profit % 9.7% 5.9% 7.5% Average holding period 24.5 days 8.0 days 16.3 days G/L open positions -4000 -3644 Chg in open positions 3457 Total G/L Year to Date 2938 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Crow This week As of last week Total Number of trades 0 1 1 Winners 0 0% 1 100% 1 100% Losers 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Unch 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Average cost 0 15750 15750 G/L closed positions 0 2250 2250 Average profit 0 2250 2250 Average profit % 0.0% 14.3% 14.3% Average holding period 0.0 days 14.0 days 14.0 days G/L open positions 0 0 Chg in open positions 0 Total G/L Year to Date 2250 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Dan This week As of last week Total Number of trades 0 48 48 Winners 0 0% 37 77% 37 77% Losers 0 0% 11 23% 11 23% Unch 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Average cost 0 35651 35651 G/L closed positions 0 84982 84982 Average profit $ 0 1770 1770 Average profit % 0 5.0% 5.0% Average holding period 0.0 days 27.7 days 27.7 days G/L open positions -22275 -9025 Chg in open positions -13250 Total G/L Year to Date 62707 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ John This week As of last week Total Number of trades 0 9 9 Winners 0 0% 5 56% 5 56% Losers 0 0% 4 44% 4 44% Unch 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Average cost 0 34649 34649 G/L closed positions 0 13431 13431 Average profit $ 0 1492 1492 Average profit % 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% Average holding period 0.0 days 36.8 days 36.8 days G/L open positions -24938 -30175 Chg in open positions 5237 Total G/L Year to Date -11507 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Kelvin This week As of last week Total Number of trades 0 36 36 Winners 0 0% 36 100% 36 100% Losers 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Unch 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Average cost 0 37524 37524 G/L closed positions 0 171831 171831 Average profit $ 0 4773 4773 Average profit % 0.0% 12.7% 12.7% Average holding period 0.0 days 16.9 days 16.9 days G/L open positions -100531 -109234 Chg in open positions 8703 Total G/L Year to Date 71300 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Larry This week As of last week Total Number of trades 0 42 42 Winners 0 0% 20 48% 20 48% Losers 0 0% 22 52% 22 52% Unch 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Average cost 0 67983 67983 G/L closed positions 0 -63706 -63706 Average profit $ 0 -1517 -1517 Average profit % 0.0% -2.2% -2.2% Average holding period 0.0 days 25.1 days 25.1 days G/L open positions -29469 -26594 Chg in open positions -2875 Total G/L Year to Date -93175 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Paul M Stock Date # Cost Cost $ Date Sales Sales G/L $ G/L % Days Bought Sold Price Price $ Held ABSC 10/13 500 43 1/4 21625 10/16 45.750 22875 1250 6% 3 AVX 10/2 1000 25.125 25125 10/19 26.875 26875 1750 7% 17 QLGC 9/29 200 88.625 17725 10/19 88.000 17600 -125 -1% 20 QLGC 10/18 300 69.250 20775 10/19 79.250 23775 3000 14% 1 SNDK 10/18 500 56.125 28063 10/19 61.250 30625 2563 9% 1 This week As of last week Total Number of trades 5 41 46 Winners 4 0% 35 85% 39 85% Losers 1 0% 6 15% 7 15% Unch 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Average cost 22663 29412 28679 G/L closed positions 8438 80992 89429 Average profit $ 1688 1975 1944 Average profit % 7.4% 6.7% 6.8% Average holding period 8.4 days 19.1 days 17.9 days G/L open positions -8125 -14038 Chg in open positions 14351 Total G/L Year to Date 81304 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Paul Z This week As of last week Total Number of trades 0 6 6 Winners 0 0% 6 100% 6 100% Losers 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Unch 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Average cost 0 33563 33563 G/L closed positions 0 24625 24625 Average profit 0 4104 4104 Average profit % 0.0% 12.2% 12.2% Average holding period 0.0 days 25.5 days 25.5 days G/L open positions -7156 -14000 Chg in open positions 6844 Total G/L Year to Date 17469 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Rick Stock Date # Cost Cost $ Date Sales Sales G/L $ G/L % Days Bought Sold Price Price $ Held SHLL 1/14 15000 2.250 33750 10/19 0.938 14063 -19688 -58% 279 This week As of last week Total Number of trades 1 0 1 Winners 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Losers 1 0% 0 0% 1 0% Unch 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Average cost 33750 0 0 G/L closed positions -19688 0 -19688 Average profit -19688 0 0 Average profit % -58.3% 0.0% 0.0% Average holding period 279.0 days 0.0 days 0.0 days G/L open positions 0 -18750 Chg in open positions -938 Total G/L Year to Date -19688 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Ron Stock Date # Cost Cost $ Date Sales Sales G/L $ G/L % Days Bought Sold Price Price $ Held CMTN 9/28 500 38.000 19000 10/17 13.750 6875 -12125 -64% 19 RMDY 7/28 2000 20.500 41000 10/20 20.375 40750 -250 -1% 84 SKS 9/28 4000 9.250 37000 10/18 9.000 36000 -1000 -3% 20 This week As of last week Total Number of trades 3 45 48 Winners 0 0% 33 73% 33 69% Losers 3 0% 12 27% 15 31% Unch 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Average cost 32333 43751 43038 G/L closed positions -13375 50748 37373 Average profit -4458 1128 779 Average profit % -13.8% 2.6% 1.8% Average holding period 41.0 days 22.7 days 23.9 days G/L open positions -56863 -70269 Chg in open positions 31 Total G/L Year to Date -19490 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Sue Stock Date # Cost Cost $ Date Sales Sales G/L $ G/L % Days Bought Sold Price Price $ Held PLUG 10/6 1000 28.813 28813 10/17 25.563 25563 -3250 -11% 11 PLUG 10/11 1000 26.063 26063 10/17 25.563 25563 -500 -2% 6 This week As of last week Total Number of trades 2 52 54 Winners 0 0% 24 46% 24 44% Losers 2 0% 26 50% 28 52% Unch 0 0% 2 4% 2 4% Average cost 27438 31141 31004 G/L closed positions -3750 -5916 -9666 Average profit -1875 -114 -179 Average profit % -6.8% -0.4% -0.6% Average holding period 8.5 days 15.4 days 15.1 days G/L open positions -3594 -3938 Chg in open positions -3406 Total G/L Year to Date -13260 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Portfolio Total This week As of last week Total Number of trades 13 286 299 Winners 6 46.2% 202 71.1% 208 69.6% Losers 7 53.8% 82 28.2% 89 29.8% Unch 0 0.0% 2 0.7% 2 0.7% Average cost 26014 39893 39290 G/L closed positions -24563 368887 344325 Average profit $ -1889 1290 1152 Average profit % -7.3% 3.2% 2.9% Average holding period 39.2 days 21.8 days 22.6 days G/L open positions -267076 -313167 Chg in open positions 21529 Total G/L Year to Date 77249 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________

To: pz who wrote (5514)	10/21/2000 2:38:42 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11568

There are several plausible explanations for the decline in FNV. 1. Some mutual funds may have strict rules that prohibit them from holding securities in a company whose debt is rated below a certain level. When Moody's reduced Finova's debt to BBB, it may have triggered some fund selling for this reason. 2. Some funds have rules that require them to liquidate a position whenever it falls x% from their entry point, no matter what the reason. This is a mechanical trigger and they aren't allowed any flexibility. 3. The stock has been below $5 long enough that it is no longer marginable. There could be selling from those who had to sell it or don't want to use the value of other securities to cover 100% of the Finova. 4. Tax loss selling. 5. Selling to move funds into stocks that someone thought might move up more in the short term. I seriously doubt if bankruptcy in in the cards for this company. I don't know as much about Finova as Ron, but they have a reasonably strong balance sheet and there are too many block buyers in the stock to think that bankruptcy is a concern. If the five issues above have contributed to the decline in FNV, the stock will eventually rebound and represents an outstanding value. Of course the market could be discounting something really bad that we don't know about. I just doubt that's the case here. It might be worthwhile to call the company's CFO to see if he has an opinion on what the market is saying. The biggest buyer or seller in the short term isn't always right in the long term. Dan

To: pz who wrote (5514)	10/22/2000 10:09:02 AM
From: Ron McKinnon	Respond to of 11568

I think this kind of discussion is great So let me be blunt on FNV I BLEW THIS ONE Have been 100% wrong on it And now am just waiting to see how it shakes out I have posted a lot on it before so there is no big reason to go back over old ground The comments made by Paul, Sue and Larry are right on the money Those by Dan give good solid reasons but right now those mean little because the market is saying differently I knew FNV because I spent over 20 years in that business At one point I ran a $2 billion asset based portfolio and a $6 billion factoring business My unit was put up for sale and I spend a lot of time in Phoenix negotiating with Sam E ( the ex CEO) a purchase of it by FNV (did not happen, someone else made an offer 3 times higher than them) FNV was a loved stock hitting a high of $60+ when it was growing like a weed; Sam was a hero, was on all the business programs, rang the opening bell at NYSE etc etc Now he is out and the stock is as hated as it can get When a stock is trading at an all time low, at a P/E of 2, 13% of book value, and gives a dividend of 20% the market says those of us buying have no clue in the world what the real story is I got suckered in by all of the above Plus I assumed: -that there would have been a buyer long before now -that the full scrub audit would have uncovered any other major problems long before now -that the company would not have paid the dividend a few weeks ago if it was going bankrupt -that there would have been many more downgrades -that forward earnings projections would have been dramatically lowered -and I saw well respected value fund managers buying the stock technically I got suckered in when it went from 8 to 20 then fell back to the 8-10 area I thought it would bounce a second time Then it fell to 6 and popped to 8 So I thought a second 6 entry would pay off Wrong! Right now no one in the industry knows a damn thing The company will not talk using the fact that they are up for sale as a reason They have moved back earnings from now till 11/14 which is the latest date they can under sec rules So again let me be blunt I was dead wrong on this now it is a pure crap shoot I can not conceive that the loan portfolio is so bad that it can not be sold or liquidated at a price much higher than $3 But if no buyers and the company can not re fund they may have to file an XI Then I will have to sit for 6 months to 2 years for it to wash out I have held this because I kept thinking the market was wrong and that I knew more then the sellers did I added Friday just to have a few “cheaper” shares on the books There is an excellent lesson in this for everyone And I think it is very helpful for us to openly air our mistakes; one learns more from them then from the good trades we make