Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JMD who wrote (15849)	10/21/2000 1:50:30 PM
From: Road Walker	Respond to of 60323

Mike, re: Discretionary spending You and Lucius make very good points. I've been selling products to mass merchandisers for, well, too many years. And it appears, that sales of electronics are soft. This was supported in the CC, most prognosticators had said that compact flash would be supply constrained through at least the 1st quarter of 2001, and in the CC SanDisk said supply/demand is "coming into balance". At the same time, consumer confidence figures haven't tanked. The stock market is starting (IMHO) a rebound, so the wealth effect may not be dead. A soft Christmas, and a recession, can't be ruled out, but they can't be counted on either. So far, GDP growth has slowed to 3% from 5%, the fed govenors are saying we are back to normal, it just feels slow. Some of the most desired hot new products are associated with compact flash. Is there risk that retail won't stage a strong 4th quarter, yes. If you are going to take that risk and place a bet I think SanDisk is as good a place as any. John

To: JMD who wrote (15849)	10/21/2000 2:28:13 PM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

When boys grow into men their toys just get more expensive. Purchases involving SanDisk products depend not only on consumer confidence, but to a large part on the wealth effect.A good stock market could be as important as a good economy in creating demand. The two don't directly go together since the market is an anticipatory mechanism. It correctly predicts all recessions, but it also predicts some that don't quite happen (1966). You can buy a perfectly adequate 2.1 MP digital camera for less than $700. I paid $470 at Amazon for a Canon S10 with extra 16 MB memory card. Still that's a lot of money for most people, especially when they can get by for a while with a cheap film point and shoot, or even a disposable. There are cheaper substitutes for all the digital products using flash memory. At present digital price levels, most of these are "step up"products, appealing to middle class and up customers. So I think we can say that SNDK is consumer related, but located in a product(s)tornado, so long run over several years it won't matter much.The short run is another matter.IMHO, we aren't headed for a recession, but predicting these ahead of the market is very difficult. Professional economists have a miserable record at this sort of prediction, so we can't count on them for much help.