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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (9694)	10/21/2000 3:50:13 PM
From: James Fulop	Respond to of 12623

>>And James, while going forward there may be relative hotspots amongst carrier class, metro, enterprise, and to the doorstep segments, oftimes it is easier said than done for a vendor to segue from long-haul to the metro ring. (Turns out there are other folks already there that don't take kindly to strangers!)<< Actually Ciena has made that transition rather well. (Please look up the recent metro wins by Ciena and the recent metro data from RHK.) But I agree with you that the transition is difficult, all the more reason there are few players in the optical space that can compete with Ciena in a number of different sectors at the same time. (Most of the start-ups one comes across are fairly specialized.) >>So I expect to see the "creative destruction" phase of the optics industry to begin in the next 12-24 months, and in two years (or sooner) we'll start seeing the optic equivalents of the Commodore's, Atari's, Informix's, Compuserves, bomb.coms, etc. of prior eras begin to litter the landscape.<< Yep, which is why following this sector is a full time job...It can change on a dime...<g> >>As a largely industry-standards based business, it's hard to see how more than a small handful of today's players will achieve long-term competitive advantage once current product supply/demand imbalances correct (they will).<< Agreed. And I am not so sure the start-ups will live up to their hype. There is much more to this business than just having the next "great technology" (apologies to Gilder fans.) Customer satisfaction, reliability of products, continuous use of legacy DWDM equipment while using new technologies, standards compatibility and other factors come into play. >>Methinks that there's buckets of money to be made at some point in the next year on the short side, not necessarily CIEN. The key to me will be when we get more and more IPO's of less and less substantive optics companies. It's coming. (If not, the whole market will have already cratered.)<< My understanding of the upcoming IPOs is that most are either component companies or specialized vendors, once again not companies that have their fingers in many different "optical pies" like Ciena. But supply is supply and it does bear watching. Thanks for your comments.

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (9694)	10/23/2000 8:16:36 AM
From: jghutchison	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

A.L.Regan, I think your analysis is right on the money. I take it one day at a time and look for changes in perception. Right now, the perception of Ciena is improving as institutional investors are beginning to view this company as a "must own" stock. The risks of ownership go with territory of hypergrowth companies. Don't we all wish we had the vision to see msft, csco, dell etc. emerging as 1990's decade stock plays with 10,000% returns. In my view, Ciena is the play of this decade. I cannot find a single company whose prospects exceed that of Ciena, and I continue to search. That is my job. Jack Hutchison

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (9694)	10/23/2000 8:25:34 PM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Your points are well-taken. I for one do not accept 87% growth at face-value. However, I thought it best to use the numbers out there, the numbers that others are using. I listened to the LU conference call today - a somber one indeed. The "creative destruction" phase you spoke about is already happening. I believe Lucent is an example. I am not starry-eyed about Ciena (especially not after the year I have had with QCOM <nsvbg>). However, this is a growth industry and Ciena seems to be well-positioned in it. They look to me as if they have transformed themselves this year (in reality maybe, but more certainly in terms of the market's perception) from a niche-player whose best prospects for its stock price was to be a take-over target, into a major player in one of fastest growing industries now and looking forward over the foreseeable future. About this latter point and your comment: "There's literally not enough end-user bucks around to pay for it if you extrapolate the industry's current growth out a few years." It made me think back to something I heard 18 months ago at a dinner I attended where the after dinner speaker was one of the founders of venture capital. He was relating a dinner conversation he had just had with someone far more knowledgeable than he. (Actually he described it as a monologue, because he said when this person - who he did not identify - speaks, you shut up and listen.) What this person said was that the upcoming communications-era would create far more wealth than that which was created by the computer networking era of the previous ten years. In fact, I believe he used words to the effect that it would be an order of magnitude greater. And we all know the wealth that has been created by the networking era - companies like msft, csco, etc. All this being said, the toughest part of investing I am finding is letting go of a winner; that is, not falling in love with it such that when its fundamentals change you a blinded by your "loyalty and love".

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (9694)	10/24/2000 12:08:13 PM
From: daViking	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

A.L. You said, "So I expect to see the "creative destruction" phase of the optics industry to begin in the next 12-24 months, and in two years (or sooner) we'll start seeing the optic equivalents of the Commodore's, Atari's, Informix's, Compuserves, bomb.coms, etc. of prior eras begin to litter the landscape." I know that you will think this is hype but if you want to take a look at NVEI and what they say they have, then fiber optics will be certainly "hit". There are the hypsters and bashers on RB (as usual) but it is certainly worth a look! dvinge