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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (13167)	10/21/2000 2:48:25 PM
From: Bill Holtzman	Respond to of 24042

Thanks. Makes the January calls a bit juicier...yummmm. Bill

To: pat mudge who wrote (13167)	10/21/2000 3:05:29 PM
From: sam	Respond to of 24042

Don't hold me to this as I am just "guessing" the numbers through my head, but I suspect JDSU's market cap will instantly grow about 33% to 40% (based on the conversion rate). JDSU currently has about a billion shares...and will add (86.5 million SDLI shares x 3.8 [conversion facter] = roughly 320 million more shares of JDSU PLUS option dilution). As of today, that would be about 35 to 40 billion dollars of market cap. That'll change, of course...and my guess is probably be factored as of a date certain by Standard and Poors. But a 40 Billion dollar gain in market cap may very well be the largest single relevant increase (even if HON does indeed get taken out, those shares are already accounted for and will not need to be purchased on the open market). Other factors, such as the strength of JDSU v. other S&P bigwigs will also play a major role. Indeed, I suspect INTC, MSFT, AOL even CSCO will have lost a significant amount of market cap from the last reweighting. If the f/o sector "outperforms" for the next few months, JDSU will have lost relatively less market cap...and thus the reweighting will be exacerbated. fwiw

To: pat mudge who wrote (13167)	10/21/2000 3:07:06 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 24042

"I wouldn't mind another "Perfect Storm" scenario. :)" It's in the bag, IF the market is solid. Let's say we are pretty strong in the averages into 1/1. As the merger is thought to be going through, sdli will rise and jdsu will rise in anticipation and it will snowball. After the merger closes, Jdsu likely gaps up as buying increases. A move to 135 on Jdsu gives it a pe of less than 150 at the run rate that will exist next quarter. Then the merger is accretive, so Jdsu quite probably earns over 1.40 next year, if you run the numbers. In a decent market, Wall is going to pay well over 100x next years e. Therefore, it is just no stretch at all that Jdsu hit 135+ before years end. The only thing in the way is the general market mood which is not going to replicate last years finish, by any means. But we should have a great run anyway. Sdli is a safe haven in this environment; the right company in the right place at the right time, with the arbitrage situation as a clincher. Finally, the merger may not take place until late December.It will be so close to year end that there will be no sensible person selling until next year, ala QUALCOMM's 4/1 split on 12/29/99. Not that I am bullish or anything;>)