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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (8868)	10/21/2000 3:00:07 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 10921

re: semi-equipment stocks keep getting downgraded and price targets reduced but the eps either remain the same A lot of analysts got burned, and looked very silly, in the previous 2 downturns. They didn't downgrade until way, way too late. Maybe they are overcompensating now, downgrading too soon. Or maybe they know something that hasn't made it to the Wall Street Journal yet. Or maybe they are all wrong, again. Analyst up/downgrades are a sensitive indicator of current sentiment, and nothing else. EPS is a (very) lagging indicator. EPS could easily peak a year after the stocks do. And, since EPS estimates have zero accuracy more than 6 months out, the EPS could peak in 1Q or 2Q 2001, and the stocks could just keep going down. Or not. Anybody who is sure of themselves, given current conditions, is overconfident. The future is opaque (more so than usually).