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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Davis who wrote (41207)	10/21/2000 4:27:17 PM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

The ROI is not just the earnings. It is also the expectation of appreciation of the total investment value. IF CSCO is going to double in 2 years, then your $28B annual interest cost would be offset by the $403 billion in incremental revenues when you sell CSCO to somebody else in two years. I sold my CSCO this week out of fear that the day of reckoning, the day in which manic valuations will no longer be applied to internet-related companies, is near. I have seen the valuations of too many companies that I owned, AMZN, ICGE, ATHM, HLTH, DSCM, for example, come crashing back from exuberant valuations. Fortunately overall I came out ahead on these, although calling tops is very difficult, and I missed some of them by a lot, but overall got very lucky. The weaker companies got their valuations trimmed first, but it seems to be spreading to the stronger companies lately, such as AMZN. I did not want to take the risk that it would happen to CSCO. So I will move the money to mutual funds. Tom

To: Bob Davis who wrote (41207)	10/21/2000 4:35:31 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

>> Help me out here - where am I wrong? First of all you're looking at trailing 12 month PEs rather than projecting future free cash flow. Second, you are attempting to apply metrics you've developed to measure the potential of small caps to a Gorilla (as in the Gorilla Game by Geoff Moore). It's just too narrow a screen. You could have done the same thing 5 years ago and advised people to get out of msft, intc, orcl and csco, and cost them a fortune in the process. Third, you are a value investor. Gorillas never appear to be good investments to those of your persuasion. But then again, value investing has underperformed seriously in recent years. Maybe your time has come, but I don't think so, at least in the tech sector. jmho, uf btw, I looked over your website, and think it's an excellent resource for small cap investors. Perhaps you should stick to your specialty.

To: Bob Davis who wrote (41207)	10/21/2000 5:01:15 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Well, for one thing, Bob, who cares about net income? Cisco will generate anywhere from $15-20 billion in cash this fiscal year. So that's what you should be concerned with.

To: Bob Davis who wrote (41207)	10/21/2000 7:36:09 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Actually according to YHOO Research sector earnings growth is forecast at 36.9%. Peronally I think the estimate is high but that's what it shows for 2002... and 36.3 for the next 5 years... again according to YHOO Research - take a look. The remainder of your post isn't even worth responding too. C'mon - a $400B 8% loan.... you're a smart guy... Think about it. Perhaps you should quit now before you completely discredit your little stock letter.