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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (1867)	10/22/2000 1:17:28 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 52153

Rick, Why the hell should we spend time discussing his opinions? Because he has a forum? Yes. <g> Seriously, these guys have considerable influence over the masses - it can be argued that the bubble during the first few months of the year was triggered by their CRA pick. Of course, the substantial difference between the internuts and the biotechs is that on average the biotechs are likely to succeed, whereas the same is clearly not true for the mass of dot.coms. If you look forward five to ten years, I believe the majority of drugs will be coming from the biotechs. Thus in the long term, the biotech industry will be successful. What we don't know is what tier of the industry will be most succesful, and we certainly don't know just which stocks will be succesful. Even the best companies can be unlucky. Peter

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (1867)	10/22/2000 7:10:56 PM
From: smh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Rick, Since I originally posted the Fool article (excerpt), I would like to respond. I selectively post these fluff articles on occasion only because I believe they have significant influence on market sentiment and investor perception. On this point, Peter beat me with this; <Seriously, these guys have considerable influence over the masses - it can be argued that the bubble during the first few months of the year was triggered by their CRA pick.> I definitely remember these guys being credited with sparking the frenzy. Last year when they first got serious about the sector, I was impressed with their world changing vision of BT, but lost interest when they entered the CRA-winner... INCY-loser camp. Within the last very few days I read a comment (somewhere?) pointing out the legions of followers the Fools have. This was in the context of their recent choice of HGSI over MLNM to add to their Rulebreaker portfolio. Invariably, these articles miss the nail on several points, while hitting squarely infrequently. Whether its internet/biotech, CRA/INCY, the idea that everything started from a dead stop at ground zero when Venter said ready-set-go, or that investing in BT is risky (only use mutual fund... and even then only 5%) the average investor is kept off balance. While expectations of boom and bust are constantly reinforced, they are also self-fulfilling and obscure the reality of the start of the biotech revolution. As V1 said back on 4/29/00, "I believe more strongly now than ever we are at the beginning of the golden age of this sector. The best is yet to come." <...and guess who knows more about the sector -- Jeffey or us?...* imagine that!! a biotech investor who names his stocks, and who has been successful, investing full time, for 5 1/2 years! > Yes, it is one of the most incredible things I have ever witnessed. The record is there for anyone on the planet with internet access to see. Even spelled out in tabular form in the various portfolios. In my own case, I have had about 90% of my 401K money invested BTs for the last two years, have never lost any sleep, up 4X. Would have been up more, but I keep following your advice, "...my opinion... get your own". This servers to pull down my average return quite effectively. One of these days I fully expect to see on the front page of the WSJ, "When Silicon Investor biotech guru Richard Harmon speaks... " No doubt T/FIF, bounce, dry powder, etc. will be immortalized. I truly hesitate to mention this as it may give someone the idea and hasten the day. For while the golden age of biotechnology has just begun, the golden age of SI biotech is here now and such an eventuality will surely mark the beginning of the end. Regards SMH