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To: Dealer who wrote (9227)10/22/2000 12:11:40 PM
From: Dealer  Respond to of 65232
 
New SEC rules seen as tough test for small caps
Oct 20, 2000 09:34 AM ET

By Ted Hughes, localbusiness.com

NEWS ANALYSIS AUSTIN, Texas, Oct. 20 (LocalBusiness.com) -- On Monday, public companies will have to comply with sweeping changes governing the way they disclose information.

The rules, set by the Securities and Exchange Commission, were inspired by a desire to level the playing field, giving individual investors information that before had been shared only with stock analysts and big Wall Street investment managers.

Under the new rules, company managers no longer are free to share material information with the professionals unless they also (within 24 hours) disclose it to the public.

Michael Noonan, investor relations manager at Pierpont Communications, said it means company managers no longer can offer confidential "guidance" to analysts about a company's earning -- a practice known as 'walking the Street.'

"Walking the Street is out," Noonan told a group of company managers at a meeting in Austin Thursday sponsored by the Technical Business Network.

Investor relations professionals, analysts, lawyers and business managers split on who, if anyone, will benefit most from the new rules.

"The road to hell is paved with good intentions," veteran Wall Street analyst Jim Poyner told LocalBusiness.com.

Many companies, especially the smaller ones, will be reticent to share useful information under the new rules, said Poyner, who covers tech stocks for New York-based C.E. Unterberg Towbin.

Even at large companies, managers already are holding back.

In a Hewlett-Packard conference call a few days ago, Poyner said, senior managers announced they will no longer give detailed divisional sales data. They said new disclosure rules prompted their decision.

"That was in a conference call," Poyner said, one of the many public settings where the new rules specifically say a company is free to give as much detail as it wishes.

Poyner and others say that if managers clam up, it means a rule aimed at leveling the playing field might just end up making the game a whole lot less interesting in the process.

"This specious new openness means, net-net, there will be less information for everybody," Poyner said. "You simply will reduce everything to the lowest common denominator."

Bigger companies kept information pretty close to the vest under the old rules, Poyner said, so the rule change is less noticeable for them.

"In smaller companies, you've got CEOs who are used to letting their hair down a bit. Under Reg FD (as the fair disclosure rules are known), they will freeze up."

The new rules also expose them to a new set of critics.

"They will be much more subject to the whims of (online) chat rooms. Reg FD is going to make it more onerous to respond to casual rumor," Poyner said. "If they clam up, there will be more ammunition for frivolous shareholder suits. The lawyers are the ones benefiting from this."

The new rules will ultimately drive investors away from smaller companies, Jeff Dabbs, analyst at San Antonio-based Kercheville & Co., told LocalBusiness.com.

"It is the exact opposite effect of what (SEC) Chairman Levitt was trying to do."

If analysts are not able to talk with company managers and revise earnings estimates, there will be a lot more surprises, Dabbs said. And more surprises will mean more price volatility.

"Creating interest in the company might wane," said Bob Litschi, Austin area partner at Tatum CFO Partners. "It will be a real struggle for CFOs and CEOs of small companies."

But overall, Litschi said, the new rules will be good for the market and ultimately good for the companies. "To make the transition without destroying relationships with analysts will be a challenge."

The Internet is the single biggest thing driving the SEC rules change, said Rowland Cook, an Austin-based lawyer with Jenkins & Gilchrist.

Cook, who formerly worked at the SEC, said the new rules recognize that "you can get it all out at the same time and in some level of detail."



To: Dealer who wrote (9227)10/22/2000 12:19:54 PM
From: Dealer  Respond to of 65232
 
STOLEN STUFF: #1 "COOL POST OF THE DAY"

>>hoping for big flush out<<
I was too but there is still no fear and lots of hoping. If you read my comments tonight, I started off slightly bullish as a few of my indicators point to a bounce here.. High Low ratios, our new indicator ( possibly, it is close), advance decline ratios, etc.

Then I looked at weekly charts and I just don't see it yet. We need to close a week down where we were at today's lows or slightly lower. I started becoming un-bullish -ggg-

When I logged onto SI and was listening to the talking heads on TV, I just got more and more bearish. I have never heard so much panic control and attempts to hype etc. Talking heads on TV saying how the professional traders are the ones dumping and not the small guy. They say the small guy is doing the smart thing by holding. Aren't these the same guys that said the individual investor didn't know how to handle the market and we needed to pass our funds to the pros because they know best? I read this as, " We haven't sold all our stuff yet, so keep holding the bag until we are at a safe distance as we light the fuse. -ggg-

Around SI, I am reading about this being a double bottom, some say from a few days ago and others say from April. Double bottoms are usually about a month apart, not 3 days and not 9 months. I hear people saying we have had capitulation. If so, why is da Chief still posting pictures of rocket launches, why is Strauss still trying to pump his biotechs, why are so many posting about if I can just get back to even, I swear I will sell? There isn't any capitulation yet. Everyone is waiting for Greenspan to cut the rate and save the market. I guess they weren't around when the PPI came in hot and the CPI this morning showed huge inflation. I also guess they missed the USA today article about the biggest Social Security COLA increase since 1992. AG is NOT going to cut rates with inflation rampant and while people are still maxing out their credit cards! If he does anything, he should raise rates, not cut them. We have the lowest savings rate ever recorded in history. The funds are also being touted as sitting on cash. Where is all this cash? I am beginning to think that Janus doesn't hold anything that goes up and are a stealth Short fund. They were the biggest holder of NOK, INTC, APPL and every other big loser of the last few months. Tonight CNXT warned and Janus is the #2 holder of that stock. Any cash they have is going toward margin calls and fund withdrawals as they go down the tubes. J6P is used to getting 25-50% gains in their mutual funds, when they end the year down 25% or so, they are going to be ticked off they can't buy that new Lexus or Pokemon/Beanie Baby set for X-mas.

Take a look at a weekly chart of MU and then read the semi boards. They are still talking about bounces and how they are going to head back up. All year they said that the cyclical nature of Semis was over, today on the local news, MU stated that Semis are cyclical and they were on the downslope side. I guess they don't know anything either.

After 17 years of bull, the people are full of bull. -g- There is no fear, no capitulation and no sense of reality or fundamentals. Even the self proclaimed trading experts on SI are getting thin in their calls. If I read one more time --(phrase deleted to keep another war from starting)-- without a prior prediction, I am going to puke, especially when the market whipsaws 30 seconds after a call is finally made about going down and it proves to be the low of the day and they still claim to be on the right side. Some plan. -g-

Basically what I am saying is every drop has been met by immediate bounces but always to a lower high. Each time it is proclaimed to be THE bottom. Most of us here called the 98 and 99 bottoms and we didn't do too bad on the summer bottom this year so I am not directing this at this thread. My point is there is still waaaay too much optimism for a bottom, there is too much hope and there are too many perma bulls still spouting off. When they all go into hibernation for more than a couple days, when the press only talks about bears and what to do with all those worthless stock certificates and Time runs another cover like I have on my wall from 98 where the people at the party are falling off the cliff of the NASDAQ chart, that will be THE bottom. Until then, I am looking for "tradable bottoms" to scalp and to get short again.

This morning started off great, wide spread panic selling, HUGE spreads between bid and ask and a lot of NYSE stocks opening late even though there was no company specific news. Those are bottoming days, but as Don pointed out, bottoms usually aren't over in a half hour and they don't fade at the end of the day. I think we could bounce here but I expect us to revisit the lows within the next month and probably much much sooner. I also think that there was blatant manipulation today to prop things up. Not sure why. It could be options expiration, it could be the Gore election games since he is toast if we tank now but there were too many GS buys on volume in SP00s and Major index heavy weights. Someone wanted this up today and they wanted it up bad. Thankfully this isn't Friday and we will get two days to watch this play out before we have to decide if we should be short for Monday's open.

We have crashing foreign currencies, a stronger dollar now than when it was hurting the multi national companies, inflation is on a tear, no slowdown in Consumer spending habits, a boatload of questionable corporate bonds, the inability of telecom and internets to float more debt yet everyone is acting like this is the beginning of another bull market. I admit, there are more and more stocks showing up on my radar as being buyable based on FA but they aren't anything that most people are watching. The stocks that make the top 100 of postings on SI are still between 100 and 2000% over valued. I saw a post here today about how CSCO dropped to a PE equal to it's growth rate once. That is the textbook explanation of fair value, anything higher than that is over valued. Also keep in mind that most tech stock earnings are smoke, mirrors and accounting gimmicks which means you probably have to subtract the majority of their "earnings" which brings fair value much much lower than a face value PEG of one.

Most of this is not obviously directed at you but I got going and couldn't stop. Thanks for letting me vent here, I only scalped a few things early this morning for 3 decent wins and a small loss so doing OK except for one position trade I should have dumped long ago. Under big on it but "hoping" (-g-) for a bounce that I can sell calls on to hedge myself in with offsetting puts. It's only minor over valued but it's a long term hold!!!! -ggggggg-

Good Luck,

Lee



To: Dealer who wrote (9227)10/22/2000 7:08:03 PM
From: altair19  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Dealie, I was reading the same article at my daughter's soccer game. FASB allows some interesting treatment of option income by employees that can mask the true operational results of a company. It's usually the huge companies with a lot of stock appreciation and employees playing the stock that can take advantage of the process. One classic is Boeing..whose pension fund is larger than it's revenue...watch the book of business for big planes, but also keep your eye on the performance of the pension plan.

I'm still hanging on to Cisco long. They take advantage of the FASB regs like everyone else.

Hope things are going well for you.

Altair19



To: Dealer who wrote (9227)10/22/2000 10:17:45 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 65232
 
comments on Aron Abelson and B.Brinker

to call Abelson a Barrons editor is the extreme misnomer
he is a mascot, court jestor, raving lune who writes satirically in the opening commentary
I dont know of ANYBODY who takes him seriously
he is very entertaining, and only occasionally says anything attached with wisdom

Brinker is an idiot, enough said
history bears this out
/ Jim



To: Dealer who wrote (9227)10/22/2000 10:20:13 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
comments on Aron Abelson and B.Brinker

to call Abelson a Barrons editor is the extreme misnomer
he is a mascot, court jestor, raving lune who writes satirically in the opening commentary
I dont know of ANYBODY who takes him seriously
he is very entertaining, and only occasionally says anything attached with wisdom

Brinker is an idiot, enough said
history bears this out

I have been reading Barrons for about 8 years now
I have never understood its tilted bearish reputation
their articles cover the spectrum from optimistic to pessimistic
they do call for more downmarkets
but they have frequent positive articles
like when interviewing Galvin or McNamee
their annual roundtables are anything but bearish
dont understand the bear label at all
most articles are very objective and factually balanced IMO
/ Jim