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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeff_boyd___ who wrote (15460)	10/22/2000 1:14:05 PM
From: porn_start878	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

So you expect all off them going to the consumer market? that's not Intel's choice, that's OEM's one and business often has the highest end first, since they pay more. AMD will make about 3.5-4 millions Athys in Q4'00 and Q1'01 and will sell them without trouble. The problem is rather the Duron, which is not competing against the P4. If AMD gets the cheap infrastructure in december in sufficient volumes, they will discontinue every Duron under 800 and get a decent ASP for 800-900 Druons. If the infrastructure isn't there, they'll do the same ramp but won't raise ASP by much. My bet is that we won't see cheap infrastructure before mid Q1 (when chipset makers ALi, Sys, Via, ?Micron? and... AMD will be competing each other) and AMD won't get decent ASP before Duron is raised to 900-1GHz. If they are wise, they won't sell 900MHz Morgan (128k cache) under 90$ and 1GHz under 140$. At that moment Intel will be selling celeron-100 from 700-850 and PIII form 866 to 1GHz. Morgan equipped with PC1600 (and maybe even PC133 since the Mustang core could be improved well) should crush PIIIEB and Intel will have a hard time cutting PIII's prices before P4 volume gets in the 5-6 millions. Max

To: jeff_boyd___ who wrote (15460)	10/22/2000 4:12:51 PM
From: dougSF30	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Jeff, Re: I'm long AMD, but Intel is ... Right now AMD does present a tremendous value opportunity to PC buyers, but what about three months from now? Six months from now? Its unfortunate, but it sure does seem like AMD has to not only do as good as Intel, but has to do much better in order to increase volumes. 6 months from now, Intel will have some number of expensive RDRAM-only P4's, then a huge hole down to 1Ghz P3's. AMD will have Mustang & friends on DDR. Does anyone have any idea what a fully equipped PIV will cost? A lot. I don't remember who posted it, but they speculated 2 million PIV units in Q1 of 2001. 2 million units. AMD didn't sell a whole lot more Athlons than that in the 3rd Q. I'll refresh your memory. Paul Engel posted it. So you compare Paul's guess at Intel's Q1 2001 P4 volume to AMD's Q3 2000 Athlon volume... and your point is? I'm long AMD, but Intel is doing a good job of convincing me that a low PE multiple is proper. I doubt you're actually long AMD. You're trying to convince other people that a P/E multiple of 8 is legit for a company growing much faster than slow-grow Intel at a P/E of 25. Try again. Doug