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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (8889)	10/22/2000 2:45:18 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

re: Is it possible that the semiconductor guys are pushing out capacity plans to go for a mid-cycle correction instead of letting the cycle end? For as long as I've been following this industry (3 cycles), and the previous history I've read about, the semi industry has never displayed an ability to manage the cycle, even approximately. They have a totally consistent pattern of building on upcycles, until they have overbuilt. With lead times lengthening (3 years now, from ground-breaking to full production, in 300mm fabs), this problem is likely to get worse, not better. It's not that they are stupid. Rather, it's a classic problem from Game Theory. Everyone acts in their own self-interest, to the group's detriment. JS@maybeitsdifferentnow.com

To: Charles R who wrote (8889)	10/22/2000 3:03:30 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Chuck, >Intel's growth has been tepid of late due to market share losses to AMD on the CPU side and possible market share losses in Flash.< The story below makes comparisons up to Q2 fool.com No market share loss then. Possible market share losses in flash? Mr Barrett singles out flash as a good performer in the 3Q report... >"Looking ahead, we anticipate record revenue in the fourth quarter, with growth across most of our product lines," added Barrett. "We are especially pleased with the rapid growth in our server business, our record flash business, and our networking silicon business which surpassed our expectations in the third quarter. We are also excited by the industry enthusiasm for the new low power mobile Pentium® III processors announced last month, the Pentium® 4 processor launching this quarter, the Itanium™ processor now shipping for pilot systems, and our recently introduced Intel® XScale™ microarchitecture."< intel.com Finally, a question to you and Jacob and anyone: what is your definition of "the end of the semi equipment cycle"? Is it when orders reach a top? Is it when orders reach a bottom? You may want to refer to this chart geocities.com Gottfried