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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeff_boyd___ who wrote (15468)	10/22/2000 2:34:25 PM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

AMD past Q4, 2000 I would be dubious about 2 million P4s in Q1 of 2001. Where are the DRDRAM RIMMs going to come from? With the Tehema board, that would mean some 4 million RIMMs, I believe the current market is less than 1 million a quarter. Unless Intel and/or VIA moves their schedule for SDRAM chipsets up, they are currently schedule for Q3/Q4 of 2001, or Samsung et al. greatly increase the run rate for DRDRAM, P4s are going to be closer to 200k than 2 million in Q1. In Q1 of 2001, AMD's product mix is likely to be 0.8GHz-0.9GHz Durons and 1.0GHz-1.4GHz Athlons with an unknown mix of Athlon Ultras(?). Intel's product mix will be PIIIs up to 1GHz, Celerons up to 0.8GHz and a small number of P4s at 1.4GHz to maybe 1.7GHz. Intel's P4s are better viewed as free advertising for AMD, the quantities will not be large enough to satisfy demand unless the market can be convinced to pay more for slower processors. Assuming that the 760MP and Micron's Scimitar chipset make it to market in Q1, AMD will have a good mix of competitive products for the corporate market. What the adoption rate will be outside of Europe and possibly Asia is a big question, but I personally think that the slump in corporate desktops is because IS departments know that Gigaprocessors are out there and will be the near future, but are loath to make heavy investments in 0.6-0.8GHz machines that are the bulk of the corporate offerings because they will be so obsolete in the near term. It may be that the first SKUs with fast AMD processors will revive a flagging corporate market. As a result, just based on the consumer, Asian and European market will be enough to soak up AMD's production through Q2 of next year. Q3 may be tougher if Intel has a cheaper P4 system with Brookdale, but AMD should be established by then.