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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (8895)	10/22/2000 5:53:05 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

re: I think the players get a little better with each cycle: That topic would be a very interesting discussion. I have opinions on this, and it is crucial to investing in this sector. But I could very easily be wrong. The discussion would only be useful, however, if we could bring facts to the debate. "Perceptions", IMO, are often the same as "wishful thinking". Please do not be offended when I say this. Everyone, me included, must constantly guard against seeing what we want to see, (or what we have a financial interest in seeing). It is a very common investing mistake, and no one is immune to it. Facts: 1. the 1998 trough in bookings was lower than the 1996 trough. 2. the 2000 peak in bookings was higher than the 1997 peak in bookings. 3. Therefore, the amplitude of the swings in bookings has increased (doubled, in fact), in this cycle compared to the previous cycle. 4. the total bookings, at any point in time, represent the semi industry's consensus on what demand for chips will be in 24-36 months. Or, to be more exact, it represents the semi industry's best guess about what the demand/supply balance will be by the time they are using the equipment they are currently ordering. 5. The time between getting the equipment, and using it at full capacity, is going to increase, as the industry goes to 300mm. That means the semi companies are going to have to try to guess even further into the future. 6. the further into the future you try to predict, the more mistakes you are going to make. (this last, I suppose, you could call a conclusion rather than a fact, but I believe it is supported by overwhelming evidence, and common sense). Therefore, I conclude there is little evidence the industry is getting less cyclical, and good reasons to think it might get even more cyclical in the future. Your facts, please?