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To: The Prophet who wrote (58469)	10/22/2000 4:51:23 PM
From: blake_paterson	Respond to of 93625

DDR SDRAM, Commercially Available or Empty Promises? hardwarecentral.com Sander Sassen (link courtesy of Jeff@Rambusite) Computer sales weren't that spectacular during August and September, which can be partly attributed to a saturation of the market in the US. But there's more to it than just that; from a consumer's point of view there've been no real advances made in either CPU or memory architectures. Actually there's no manufacturer clearly taking the lead and pushing things and technology forward. In the past, Intel did that, and led the industry in a certain direction, but now it seems it too is having troubles introducing new technologies. As a result of all of the CPU and chipset errata, the whole Rambus RDRAM debate, AMD's initial lack of production capacity, and more importantly the absence of high-performance chipsets to accompany new CPUs, and the DDR SDRAM memory and chipsets failing to debut, it is not surprising that people prefer to wait before laying out for a new computer. In retrospect, with both Intel and VIA struggling to meet demand for high-performance chipsets, it would have been an ideal time to introduce the DDR SDRAM chipsets announced by a number of manufacturers months ago and make a lasting impression, given the advertised price/performance benefits. Unfortunately the manufacturers were unable to finalize and ship their products then, and, surprisingly, we have yet to see a commercially available DDR product. Both the modules as well as the accompanying chipsets are sampling but remain commercially unavailable. Actually DDR SDRAM is nothing new, it is not something that has been conceived in the past few months. VIA is actually one of the manufacturers that have been claiming to be working on such a chipset for some time now. Back in September ’97 it claimed to be sampling a chipset with a DDR SDRAM-based memory interface. It was supposed to be a new version of the company's Apollo VP3 chipset, and slated to move into volume production by October of 1997. It wasn’t until December of 1997, however, that Samsung demonstrated prototype DDR SDRAM modules operating at 66 MHz in a test system with a DDR SDRAM chipset from VIA. About a year later, in August of ’98, Samsung actually began sampling its first JEDEC (Joint Electronics Device Engineering Council) compliant DDR SDRAM, a requirement for standardization and compliance with chipsets and DDR SDRAM-based memory interfaces. Samsung delivered the world's first working prototypes to verify the feasibility of the signalling interface and protocol. As a result of its JEDEC compliance, many manufacturers, including Samsung, noted that DDR SDRAM modules would be going into production by the end of ’98 and forecast DDR SDRAM would grow to more than a third of the total DRAM market demand in 2001 from a start in 1999. A year after that, during Comdex in November ’99, DDR SDRAM was said to have gotten a boost when VIA disclosed having licensed the DDR-enabled Samurai chipset from Micron. The Samurai chipset, more or less a proof- of-concept study according to Micron, did seem to offer a working model, which VIA seemed to lack. If VIA indeed had licensed the Samurai chipset, it could have been a prime candidate for the 200 and 266 MHz (PC1600 and PC2100) DDR SDRAM modules many manufacturers were already sampling. According to the motherboard manufacturers, they are actually awaiting an accompanying chipset, and VIA's Samurai license could position it as the sole supplier at this time. However, during the last quarter of ’99 and the first half of ’00 we’ve seen many press releases issued by VIA, Micron, Ali and others, all stating that DDR SDRAM chipsets and platforms are only a few months down the line. Unfortunately we’re already in the last quarter of ’00 and no chipsets, no products commercially available Sander Sassen

To: The Prophet who wrote (58469)	10/22/2000 5:48:23 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Te Prophet, I'll repeat, Tate was the one stating that DRAM would 65%, I would have thought that controllers and ASIC would be included in the other 35%. As for $40 B being low, sure, I have seen data quest now forecasting more than $70 B in the next few years, but that was before the prices of DRAM were halved. Somehow those guys always look in the rear view mirror. At least $40 B is not outrageous, is 30% more than this year's expected dram shipments and thus a conservative figure to work with. Zeev