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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (110906)	10/22/2000 6:16:17 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

William: "nightmare scenario" Sorry William, I know you only want sweet dreams. And all of your stock picks have unlimited potential and cannot be hurt by anything that goes on in the world. There can be no recession, not now, not ever. There will not be another war -- now or ever. The world is a stable place ripe for getting rich by speculating in stocks. The way to reduce risk is just to speculate on more stocks. The oil will flow and the price will drop. Interest rates will go down very soon. The dollar will stay strong forever. Import prices will continue to drop forever. The current account deficit can run at $400 billion per year forever and have no effect. And the stocks you pick will always be undervalued, no matter how highly priced they are already. I am sorry for injecting the very thought of anything that could disturb your sleep -- sweet dreams.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (110906)	10/22/2000 6:22:41 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

William "There is a peace process here. Israel is dealing in good faith and so are the Palestineans." I am not sure how you came to this conclusion. I merely state that there are risks -- you state that everything is fine. I believe it is you who are dangerous for reassuring people that everything is fine when it probably is not. I think this is highly irresponsible. STOP REASSURING PEOPLE.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (110906)	10/22/2000 6:57:43 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 164684

William "Of course I remember 1973 and 1979. How could it be worse this time, GST?" Our oil dependence has not improved -- an embargo would have a dramatic effect and would throw us into a sharp and deep recession. Terrorism has not improved -- and as a wild card it now plays a greater role. You do not need an embargo, just blow up some tankers in the straits. There are plenty of terrorist targets. And the terrorists are prepared to give it to us on our home turf if they can pull it off -- remember the incident last year in Seattle? The spread of weapons of mass destruction to a level where they can be used by terrorists or in direct State-to-State conflict has not improved -- quite the opposite. In a direct military confrontation we have at least one country (Israel), with nuclear weapons as an option to be used in a ground war against incoming tanks. The one area of major improvement is that Russia is not engaged on the other side -- the chances of confrontation leading to world war are now greatly diminished -- a real consolation to be sure. But is the ME as much or more of a powderkeg than ever -- I think the answer is clearly "yes". Every day there are children with stones in their hands being shot -- every single day. Playing with matches in this way is NOT the way to reduce the risk of escalation. Only a fool would think the risk is minimal IMO. The leaders of the moderate Arab States will face internal political problems if they go soft on Israel if this continues. This is what we are already seeing -- a hardening of positions. Escalation is not in our interests. Yet every day we are seeing signs of escalation.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (110906)	10/22/2000 6:58:11 PM
From: Eric Wells	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Israel is dealing in good faith and so are the Palestineans. William - I'd like to think that both sides are negotiating in good faith - but in truth, we don't know. Perhaps both sides made a good faith effort to stop the violence - but whether or not they did, they failed. And in reality, it doesn't make any difference whether both sides are acting in good faith - what matters is the belief on both sides that they are negotiating in good faith. And today, a day when Barak effectively withdrew Israel from peace negotiations and Arafat told Barak to "go to hell" (see links below), well it's difficult to believe that either side has faith that the other is negotiating in good faith. asia.dailynews.yahoo.com asia.dailynews.yahoo.com I can only hope that your rose colored view of the world some day proves to be true. -Eric