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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (110914)	10/22/2000 10:19:03 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

William: "your oil embargo notion is extreme". It is not "my notion", it is one of the risks we face, and yes it is an extreme risk if you look at the impact that it would have on the world economy. The risks have increased lately. BTW, there are some similarities to 1973. In 1973 the embargo coincided with tight oil supplies -- oil is a weapon that works best for those who use it when consumers have the least bargaining power -- which is precisely the situation today. There are some important moderate leaders in the Arab world - lets hope that events don't force them to become more radical or to be thrown from power in "revolutions", through terrorism or by assassination. This is large part of the meaning of the term "unstable region". Arab leaders cannot afford to be seen as soft on Israel. Doing so puts their own political survival at risk.