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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim kelley who wrote (58509)	10/22/2000 10:38:56 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 93625

<<I do not have a good estimate of the size of this market but it is big. By the way, Rambus is already collecting on some embedded processors from Toshiba, NEC, Hitachi, OKI and Intel. So yes, there is a firmly established basis for collecting royalties on controllers.>> OK can someone do a more accurate discounted cash flow scenario based on the above if you do not like Bilow's estimate? I just want to figure out how big each component is. Perhaps it should be broken out just that way. Memory SDRAM at 1% RDRAM at 2% DDRAM at 4% Controllers 4% Chipsets??? 4% How about a DCF for the above - complete with assumptions. How big is the market for these components and how fast is each of these growing. Thanks to whoever undertakes this question.

To: jim kelley who wrote (58509)	10/23/2000 12:29:21 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi jim kelley; Re: "BILOW's estimate of the PC controller market is way too high. The 2.5 to 5% rate, say 4% on controllers should not apply to the CPU but to the chip containing the interface. I believe that is the Northbridge. So the royalties in most cases apply to the chip sets and not the CPU per se. After all even the P4 uses the FSB to interface to its chipset. The FSB is not a RDRAM controller interface. The chip sets appear to be in the 30 to 60 dollar range while the processor may be as much as several thousand dollars." What I am taking into account in my estimates is that the three chips, the CPU, the Northbridge and the Southbridge will become integrated into a single chip. There are plenty of examples of these. They are the latest and greatest stuff, and the inevitable wave of the future. A few that immediately come to mind are: Intel: Timna (dead, but replacement design rumored) Transmeta: Crusoe (lots of recent design wins in notebooks) VIA: Matthew (around 1Q01) -- Carl