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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Osprey who wrote (7743)	10/23/2000 1:34:23 AM
From: Richard Saunders	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24905

OSPREY - I screwed up & I also think you did too. My last note was asking for some fundamentals. I glanced at your last note and assumed it was the same as what I had also seen apparently posted 6 or 7 other places. I didn't notice that you had posted some of your assumptions. Once I saw them I decided that it was time to go check SEDAR a little more thoroughly. Some facts from SEDAR: - OEL Osprey is on a June 30 year end. - Most current filing is for 9 month period ended Mar. 31 - Total 9 month REVENUE = $306,335 - Total 9 month CASHFLOW = zippo it's negative $93,221 - Total 9 month INCOME = zippo. A LOSS of $131,721 - Total 9 month OPERATING COSTS = $164,787 - Total 9 month G&A Expense = $176,528 - Total 9 month PRODUCTION = NOT STATED...... hmmmmm. Your assumptions: (from your post #reply-14637833) EDIT: I just noticed with the info the company reported thus far they have approxiamately this production and all info is on the low side I presume as all the releases said they would be increasing prodution. Jenner-- 8 wells at 200BOPD X 5%=90BOPD approx Livingston--160 BOPD but expected to double= 160BOPD Bayou Choctau--100BOPD to increase to 600 by year end=100 Cotton valley--335 BOPDE from 185 bopd and 900,000cubic feet of gas= 335BOPD Totals =90+160+100+335=685BOEPD X 30.00US X 340 days production X150% (for canadian conversion)=$10,480,500 divided by total outstanding shares of 5,322,000=1.96/share cash flow on total outstandings.If one uses fully diluted(PP stock, warrants,options and debenture conversion)11,500,000 you still get cash flow of .91/share.Applying a multiple to that of a conservative 3 to O/S stock you get $5.88/share and based on fully diluted you get 2.73/share. Let's see if the company is higher than this level they have reported thus far. =-=-=-=-==-=--= Osprey, your math is hooped. At SEDAR OEL filings make it impossible to figure out what is being achieved in terms of cashflow on a per barrel basis because nothing is stated regarding production levels. Sure, hypothetical production numbers are mentioned about various places however nothing historic to March 31 is listed. You assume the co. is doing 685 boepd however that's a major leap and it would be great if the company could confirm that. During the period March to June 2000 most oil&gas companies reported revenues of more than $30 cdn per barrel. I saw an industry study that looked at some producers and on a revenue basis per barrel the weighted avg. for the second qtr. was $34.44 cdn. This is revenue and cashflow is less than that...... The same industry study had cashflow appearing at just under $20cdn per barrel of production (gas 10:1). Your funny cashflow math used $30us and then multiplied it by 150% to come up with something like $45cdn per barrel for cashflow. Wrong. Purely a guess if the co. is showing $20/barrel CF they will be doing wonderfully well. IF the co. is doing 685 boepd production the $20 CF number would mean about $13,700per day or about $5mil. on an annualized basis. Personally I doubt they are doing anywhere near that number. You indicated CASHFLOW something like $10.5mil for 340 days & I call BOGUS NUMBERS. Your OEL doesn't make it easy to figure out things like operating costs or revenues or cashflow on a producing unit basis because they don't show any production numbers. With incomplete info. it's impossible to do the math....... better and more thorough reporting would be desired. Also, SEDAR shows 3 filings of FORM 61's (qtrly. info. reports) that are dated May 31, July 13 and July 26. All three reports are the exact same thing. Same question remains - STOCK PLAY or FUNDAMENTAL GROWTH STORY? Jack be nimble......