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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (33578)	10/23/2000 11:18:29 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Awe, common... can't I just 'doom and gloom' here?? Ha ha.. How about this, does anyone have any examples of what they would consider a 'gorilla proxy' that went through a bear market like the 70's?? Might be a good exercise, I'll give it some thought. You do like doom and gloom. Your profile is doom and gloom. You live off shore. You list some money under the mattress investments like gold? That's all fine. We all have our unique strategies to accumulate wealth in the market place. If you can quantify and qualify that the economic situation today is similar to the 1970's, then more power to you. Bank CD's were paying teenage interest rates. They were drilling wild cat drills through thousands of feet in farmland throughout Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana (a very, very expensive drilling process) to suck out old dinosaur innards. In terms of technology adoption life cycles, it was pre-PC times. Gorilla wise, we had IBM of the mainframe era. Intel was alive and well throughout the 70's, yet their big growth was yet to come. You had some mainframe value chain companies in software/hardware. Now we have IP/Broadband and network application technology adoption life cycles which utilize the Internet and build the Internet. We are in the early stages of this - on a global basis. Interesting that Corning said today they are sold out of next year's production. They've sold all their tickets to the show. The infrastructure companies see robust demand, have excellent book to bill ratios are worried about meeting demand. The data storage and transport companies see amazing robust growth and storage needs that are accelerating, not slowing. The urgency for network applications from the likes of i2 have been noted by management. I expect Siebel to offer some more insight to this coming up. The IP/Broadband companies see robust demand being fueled by corporations desire to conduct business through e-markets on the buy, sell, portal and content sides. It's hard for me not to see investment opportunity within these spaces which involve a lot of the gorilla companies and royalty companies that we follow in light of overall economic growth and corporate earnings growth perhaps slowing from 20% to 18% to 16% to 14% and maybe even down to the 10 - 12% level. That's all above historical norms. There are plenty of things to see as reasons to be invested in the best positioned and best performing companies through all of that. That doesn't mean that every investor should be 100% invested in equities, but most of us do have balanced asset classes and do want a healthy portion of our money in something that will return more than a fixed income/bond/interest bearing to boost our returns. One has to be realistic and balanced. No need for all doom and gloom. No need for all rosy and fine either. BB

To: LLCF who wrote (33578)	10/23/2000 11:45:09 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Yes,yes and yes. DEC and IBM went through the 1965-1975 decade beautifully. They were the only certifiable gorillas at the time. Sorry, I don't know how to access the figures but I was around then watching the market and I remember their general behaviour as my relatives were in on those two stocks.

To: LLCF who wrote (33578)	10/23/2000 11:54:06 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

At any given time there have to be unselective bulls who think most of the market will climb, selective bulls like Gorilla Game investors, selective bears who sell short a few things but wouldn't do this generally. Finally we have unselective bears, such as seems to fit your present mood. All of these classes are necessary in order for the market to keep a certain balance. All of these groups can be right at times. Personally in my observation, with Polaroid, Xerox,IBM,DEC,Microsoft, etc. as examples the gorillas do mighty well. My personal advice to you is to sell something. That should make you a little more comfortable. Then relax and analyze some more. JMHO.