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Technology Stocks : AWARE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockDon who wrote (1267)	10/23/2000 10:11:25 PM
From: Bobo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2404

Bobo, do you still believe that Aware only gets 50¢ per chipset sold by their customers? If that's true, then Aware collected royalties on 7.4 million ADSL chipsets last quarter. Not very likely. If they get $2 per chip then they collected royalties on 1.85 million chips last quarter, and remember the one quarter lag, so it would be based on chips sold between April and June. I believe the latter figure for CO chipsets -- approximately $2, maybe slightly higher. Please show me one of my posts where I have cited a different figure because that would have been quite irresponsible of me. I cannot remember what is exactly in my model. My guess is probably closer to $.50 or less for the INTC deal (assuming INTC ever spins a chip). It is clear that the figure goes down from here as ASP's decline and volume discounts become higher. Now that Aware mgt has finally admitted that ADI is its primary royalty generator, it will be easier to track market shares between GSPN, ADI and ALA. My estimate is that ADI and GSPN were on par in Q2 in terms of ADSL chipsets shipped. Given GSPN's qtr tonight, it will be interesting to see if ADI puts up 45% sequential growth from Q2 to Q3. We'll know alot better when AWRE reports in Jan. Looks like AWRE we'll really have to beat the royalty rev guidance they gave in the cc for this to materialize. ADI might do it given the way things are rolling out in Korea. Kind of a last shot of jet fuel for ADI -- aka one last chance for AWRE longs to abandon ship. I hear that things are really mess in the TXN ADSL camp. I guess that leaves ALA, ADI, GSPN and CTLM to battle it out. Stockdon it is still amazing to me that AWRE and ADI mgt are in denial about their competition. I hope you are still not drinking the same Kool Aid.