Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pgerassi who wrote (15571)	10/23/2000 1:18:17 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Pete, <However it took Intel till just recently to begin to get even low production qualities of 1GHz P3s. > This was widely forecasted. Intel's clever tricks, such as higher Vcc, lower temp ratings, beefier heat sinks got PIII where it is today. <They may never get 1GHz at normal temp margins (80-90C) til 0.13u. > Intel already acknowledged that by cancelling 1.13G. <However, the point I was trying to make is that it is very hard to predict 12 months into the future. > Absolutely true. <Did you believe that AMD would have 1GHz Athlons for sale under $270 last October (1999)? > I don't think I or anybody else here forecasts prices on the 1GHz part. But, last year, I was expecting AMD to be at 1.2-1.4G in Q3. So, AMD is actually behind in MHz compared to my prognostications. The main reason being slippage in product roadmap and a rather anemic Dresden ramp because of long list of infrastructure problems. <That Intel would misfire this many times, totally recall a speed grade shipping for 4 weeks because they forgot to test compiling Linux with it, and now admit that the deal with RAMBUS was a mistake?> As far as Athlon/P3 MHz ramps are concerned, the thread prognostications last year have largely turned out to be true and so did the collective thinking on RDRAM. Many people have said many times that Intel would have problems ramping PIII MHz. The 1.13G problems were known weeks before Intel acknowledged it. <It is very easy to dismiss and believe that it is easy, except when one tries to. It is just typical that when one actually succeeds, people then trivialize it by saying, "well, it was obvious that ...".> I was slamming your 1.8G on Thunderbird in 0.18 rumor. I wouldn't read what I said as anything more than that. And, I notice that you have not bothered to say where the rumor came from. <So in this vein, what is your prognostication for what speeds, prices, and quantities P4 and its family, the AMD Horse (Mustang) family, > I have said for a long time that P4 is likely to get to 2.4G on 0.13 and AMD will struggle to get to 2G. I have no reason to change that at this point. Price wise, high-end of P4 will be priced higher than high-end of Athlon family. Quantities wise P4 will probably ship above 100Ku this Q (assuming no more glitches), 1.5Mu+ in Q1, 3M+ in Q2 and a steep ramp from there on. <and the AMD Hammer family will be available in the DIY market in October 2001?> In DIY market in October 2001? In someone's dreams, may be! Hammer will not be production until Q1 2002 at the earliest. Probably more like mid-2002. Chuck