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To: Ilaine who wrote (30541)10/23/2000 5:17:18 PM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Well... This sort of measures how much REAL money (GDP) is out there to pump imaginary wealth (aka stock market) in percentage terms. So, 175% was not US market cap at a maximum. This is now. Wow! By comparison, this ratio was 70% in 1929 at the peak, and 130% in Japan in 1989... Sort of shows that this market has no room to expand. But so I thought in 1997, 1998, 1999, and earlier this year -ggg-



To: Ilaine who wrote (30541)10/23/2000 5:29:37 PM
From: Oblomov  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Also, GDP counts all sales, so goods that pass through many levels of production will be counted many times in the GDP figures.

I think that a more valuable figure to examine is (GDP)/(Total assets), where total assets includes the value of tangible assets, debt securities, equity, etc. This is essentially the Return on Assets for the entire economy. It should not be surprising that this figure is cyclical, and is a leading indicator. What surprises me is that I have never seen an economic work that looks at this statistic. I'll try to post a chart later this evening.



To: Ilaine who wrote (30541)10/23/2000 8:19:23 PM
From: PMG  Respond to of 436258
 
>>This is 175% of US GDP.<<

1929:

Market Cap: 89,7 Bln
GDP: 81 Bln

= 111% of GDP