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To: kash johal who wrote (15642)	10/23/2000 6:41:09 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Kash: What FABS has Intel currently have at 0.13u copper with all the equipment for at least one whole line? Without you being able to tell me where that line is, you are the one pumping pure BS. Give link! Pete

To: kash johal who wrote (15642)	10/23/2000 8:01:29 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Re: are u really seriously doubting that Intel has a pilot line running o.13 Cu process? Recent experience with moving to copper has indicated that the move from pilot lines to full scale production hasn't been instantaneous. Nor have been the implementation of full shrinks. Combining the two is going to offer a lot of opportunities for delay. Intel released its mobile P3 .18 processor in April of 1999, as best as I can recall, and light volume of the desktop version was available just before the end of the year. It involved a shrink and a brand new cache. This time they have to do a shrink, copper, a new socket with a new chipset, and the first rev of a new core. I think Pete's points made quite a bit of sense. In fact, volume P4 before 2002 would be quite an achievement - which Intel may well succeed at, but probably not much earlier than mid December and possibly not until a half a year after that. Regards, Dan

To: kash johal who wrote (15642)	10/23/2000 11:04:10 PM
From: Goutam	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash, re: > Gee, u must really understand intel. > So are u really seriously doubting that Intel has a pilot line > running o.13 Cu process. > So based on this brilliant analysis are u suggesting that Intel > is building empty shell fabs. > And gonna start ordering equipment when -- say mid year next > year - when the ole pilot line fires up. > Pete - stick to "analyzing" software - this fab analysis is pure BS. r u expecting Intel's 0.13 Cu Process Fab will be fully qualified, and running at full capacity producing P4s during Q3'01? What about P4 moving to a new pin-out to facilitate MP by Q3'01? There is nothing wrong with your PIV euphoric posts with your prediction of how tough its going to be for AMD after Q1'01. I remember clearly you posting similar voluminous posts on this board in Q2'99, but with respect to Coppermine - Intel is going to squash AMD, Intel gonna convert its multitude of fabs to 180nm within a few quarters, Intel will produce zillions of cheap coppermines, etc. I wish, I had book-marked your posts then. But, what happened to your old predictions? It took Intel more than a year to get to the point that you were predicting in Q2'99. What exactly did you overlook then? IMHO, you ignored Athlon scalability to take into account at that time. In your PIV Q3'01 predictions, again you are neglecting other advantages AMD would have by the time Intel ramps PIV to 10-12M units. Hint: great infrastructure, higher market share, increased mindshare, msp, mobile products, new improved cores, close to fully ramped Dresden, improved yields, at least one or two volume enabled extra speed grades, etc. goutama