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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quasar_1 who wrote (91)	10/23/2000 8:16:28 PM
From: excardog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

quasar, thanks for the thoughtful response. I'm not by nature a negative thinker. Therefore for an example I have a hard time shorting stocks I want everybody to do good. Just wanted to explain that I'm not your normal doom and gloomer. Quite the opposite really. I enjoy sales meetings even. Couple more thoughts on oil. There are several sources out there that believe we are nearly topped out in our abilities to produce oil on a daily basis. I'm of the opinion that we demand now exceeds supply or is just equal to it. Refinery capacity in the US is not able to keep up with demand any longer due to several factors not the least of which is environmental issues. I totally agree with your point that as oil prices remain high ,alternative energy becomes more viable. You are correct that neither OPEC or "big oil" wants the price at this level but when supply exceeds demand that is what you get. Now a slowdown will reduce demand and with it pricing power. But therein lies the rub, lower priced oil does nothing to encourage alternative energy sources. Once the worlds economies heat back up we are right back in the same boat again only this time it will be even worse. Very tricky situation. This piece was written in 1996 substitute the year 2000 instead of 2020 and this is where I think we are: search.aol.com It's a little lengthy but worth the read if you've got the time. BTW we now import close to 60% of our oil needs. There are other sources if you have some interest. It is my belief that no excess capacity exists in the Middle East and all this production raising banter is just that banter. Might also explain todays futures action. Over the weekend OPEC agrees to raise production 500k barrels and the price for December crude closed up 81 cents today. What they should have said is they are going to raise production by 5 million barrels a day, it's almost as believable to the market at this point. The market is telling us something and we all need to listen. Regards

To: quasar_1 who wrote (91)	10/23/2000 10:56:54 PM
From: PerryA	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Once 'wealth' is created it isn't destroyed. Nominal values can fluctuate (markets) but the wealth stays. I believe you are making the assumption that there is in most companies real indestructable wealth underlying their market valuations. In some cases this is true, but certainly not for the concept stocks -- and that is where the bubble is. Much of that wealth is only an illusion that goes down the drain with the stock price. PerryA

To: quasar_1 who wrote (91)	10/24/2000 11:09:54 AM
From: tradermike_1999	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Quasar - I also agree with your statements that deflation is a great problem. I believe that the "free trade" world economy has created global deflation. This is why Japan can't escape its recession. China and several other Asian nations also. The cheap labor costs overseas has led to lower labor costs and has decimated our industrial sector. That has a large part to do with why labor costs in the US have not been rising. HArd to tell at this point if it is just as important as productivity and technology or even more so. But it is a serious problem and why a collapse in the dollar could spark a sharp global crisis.