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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quasar_1 who wrote (15653)	10/23/2000 8:45:50 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 275872

Quasar, Kind of off topic. RE:"On the other hand, some of the talk concentrates on short term price swings, as if they have relevance to long term value. This is purely a psychological phenomenon. The last trade affects the next trade. There is little 'search for value' at the margin. It is when the marginal decisions start to accrue over very long periods of time that value assumptions can be made. In today's go-go markets it is often very difficult to find the value 'forest' amid the 'Ameritrade' trees." I can't really disagree with anything you said. Psychologial re:technical analysis, is about the only thing that can explain the swings. Certainly not fundamentals. This is why talk of AMD should be valued at this price or that price are ancillary at best. RE:"As far as the Asian crisis, this was a monetary phenomenon, not a stagnant demand or growth phenomenon. In fact it was quite the opposite. As raw commodity prices crashed (deflationary) the underlying currencies were devalued and the asset base which secured first world loans came into question. It in effect was a monetary implosion due to lack of confidence in the debt repayment. What the market feared was the proverbial domino effect, bringing first world financial institutions down the third world drain. The funny thing is no real assets disappeared (oil and copper were still in the ground), only their monetary representations were called into question. In the larger scheme this is a smoke and mirrors phenomenon" I think that's a pretty fair acessment. OTOH, there appeared to be a slowdown in a number of Asian economies besides Indonesia as evidenced by the freighters bringing goods to the US full vs returning mainly empty. This has rectified itself to a certain extent as has the fear...which as usual was probably overblown. Jim