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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: scott_jiminez who wrote (35)10/24/2000 9:46:12 AM
From: Berk  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95420
 
Scott, thanks for the analysis. From Carl Johnson on the Blood thread:
To: Charles R who wrote (8930)
From: Carl Johnson
Monday, Oct 23, 2000 11:07 PM ET
Reply # of 8947

Hello,

Month-to-month average change in equipment orders and shipments over the last ten years:

infras.com

What does this tell us? It tells me that in an average year growth in orders ratchets lower from January to
September. It also says that in an average year growth in revenues trends lower from May to September. I suppose
I could also say that in an average year total orders and shipments tend to bottom in July-August and September -
that's pretty obvious.

Some may read more into this chart. For me, it only helps me understand the seasonal trends in the equipment
business. I don't see anything in the chart that tells me the equipment business is in an up cycle. For that matter, it
does not tell me if the industry is in a down cycle.

On second thought, one could say we are in a long term up cycle. There are more datapoints above 0% than there
are below. :-)

Food for thought,

Carl