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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (9006)	10/24/2000 10:33:44 AM
From: justone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Mike: RE: service deployment of voice-over-cable, VOD, and video conferencing I know that voice is being deployed, but the rate of deployment will ramp up once DOCSIS 1.1 modems are widely deployed and the cable service providers (MSOs) are up to speed and comfortable supporting the DOCSIS 1.1 network and internet networks, and packecable equipment has been certified at cablelabs. I still think a typical MSO can't walk and chew gum at the same time: that is, deploy more than one service at once. They rolled out first cable tv, then pay per view, and are now deploying 'home' and 'work' broadband data. Each service was deployed sequentially, with a lot of trouble and pain. So I expect they will rollout voice in one-two years, video on demand in two-three-four years, and work at home video conferencing in five years. To be fair, each of the killer services requires new network management, billing, and customer service capabilities- and that is difficult to acquire overnight. And you need to generate a revenue stream to pay for new service deployment. Factors that might affect rollout are: 1. Once broadband data's deployment rate slows down, I look for voice to be deployed. Voice does require the purchase of a CO, which isn't cheap (~$200 per subscriber, but you probably have to buy a minimum of 5,000 line circuit systems, so you are looking at a $1M to $2M investment, along with a LOT of service training beyond the cable tv or cable data, as well as billing. It also requires some sort of DOCSIS 1.1 set top box at $300 per subscriber. 2. VOD, doesn't necessarily require a digital tv- merely a new set top box or computer with large disc storage capacity and a bunch of tv hardware. However, the 'merely' is about $400 per subscriber (or must be to be in the equivalent purchase range of a VCR, say), and it requires complex agreements and services and billing on a per usage basis. As a footnote, I note that the xDSL folks are counting on VOD as their killer app- so they may try to deploy it more quickly. However, it is difficult to see how they can get near real time video, so it is likely only to appeal to those who have a DSL modem- but I could be wrong here. This is xDSLs best shot. 3. Work at home video. The user end is actually rather simple, and video conferencing standards are out there now. The real problem is the upstream limits to HFC. Again, xDSL may have a shot at a market here, if the HFC folks can't improve the upstream.