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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (33917)	10/24/2000 11:06:55 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

Just got an INTRADAY CLASS 1 SELL SIGNAL on the DOW. On Friday I got INTRADAY CLASS 1 SELL signals on the SPX/OEX/NAZ/NDX. Those intraday highs on FRIDAY are still holding, with the exception of the SPX piercing it slightly. With the DOW up 150+ points, the NAZ/NDX appears to be lagging. Yesterday I got a CLASS 1 SELL signal on the SOX and with the SOX down 30+ points, it appears to be working in light of the NSM news and the poorer book-to-bill Not that I am expecting a strong selloff, but if the intraday highs on the SPX/OEX/NAZ/NDX are not broken to the upside significantly today, I would suspect that the selling could start to gain momentum later today/tomorrow. For short-term traders, today should be a good day to take profits.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (33917)	10/24/2000 7:19:31 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Respond to of 42787

Paul, Nice charts!! One could almost make a case that the Dow was simply getting back on track in the last half decade, regaining the line from post crash in the 30s through 1970. I'm not that optimistic, but I do think Dow 10,000 is a big deal, and might very well hold up. Imagine projecting the consolidation between 600 and 1000 forward in time to a base at 10,000. Keeping the same width on the sideways channel would put the top at 16,667. And imagine staying in that channel until we return to 10,000 when it meets the line originating in the 70s. Positively scary for any ling term investor isn't it? Another 10 years of sideways movement, with a few chances to give back 40% off the high before finally regaining the uptrend. I really don't think that is likely. One of the striking aspects of the Dow chart is that as the Dow has risen, the "eyeball" volatility has been shrinking. If we do go sideways from here, I don't think it will be between 10,000 and 16,667, more like between 10,000 and 12,000, and that is not to say we can't dip below 10,000. I just don't think it will stay there for an extended period. I can easily imagine a sideways move between 10,000 and 12,000 that picks up a new line that is currently between the two on the chart, say half way. That intersection is only a few years away. I don't doubt the Nasdaq could find its way back down to the 90s line at some point. I would prefer that it hang around above recent lows and wait for the line to come to meet it, but I rarely get what I want. Another possibility is that COMPX will pick up a line parallel to the 90s line touching the 90s tops. If so, the S&P will find its way between its two lines and probably pick up some intermediate line, perhaps parallel to the lower one but displaced above it, like the imaginary Dow line I mentioned. All of this is just speculation, of course, but it seems plausible. Dan